Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks hit another high last week, but gasoline stocks fell, both partly reflecting reduced refinery activity. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices of industrial commodities may finally be bottoming out Looking past the day-to-day volatility, the prices of many industrial commodities – including oil and base metals – appear to be finding a floor. This is at least consistent with our relatively... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The rally in the price of iron ore appears premature The recent surge in the price of iron ore is not supported by fundamentals. Chinese steel production fell sharply in January, while efforts to boost iron ore supply are ongoing. As such, we expect... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium consumption surge isn’t all it seems We think that recent reports suggesting China’s aluminium consumption surged last year and that the world market recorded a deficit don’t accurately reflect the fundamentals of the sector. The reality... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How have euro-zone consumers spent their oil savings? Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to fall as China plans further sales of stocks With the prospect of further sales of China’s vast state cotton stocks continuing to depress Chinese import demand, and US production rising, we think the price of cotton will drop further this year. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released today, show that global steel output fell by 7.1% year on year in January. Output fell in all major producing regions for the second consecutive month, but... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower oil prices finally boost global growth? Last year, the slump in oil prices turned out to be less of a bonanza for the world economy than most had anticipated. This year we expect oil prices to be more stable, but still relatively low. In... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output fell by nearly 2% y/y in January, largely on account of a decline in China’s production. This supports our view that prices... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another month of solid Chinese metals imports Imports of many industrial metals had surged in December, so somewhat slower growth in January came as no surprise. However, the bigger picture is that China’s imports of metal have remained strong... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish start to 2016 for Chinese agricultural import demand The detailed Chinese import data for January, released earlier today, indicate that import demand for agricultural commodities started the new year as it ended the last: weak. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Bumper start to the year for China’s PGM imports China’s imports of palladium and platinum surged in January. The seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the figures to some extent. Nonetheless, strong car... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices may finally be finding a floor Oil prices have ebbed and flowed in the past week on hopes that at least some OPEC members will be able to agree a deal with Russia to freeze output. Admittedly, the recent talks have left many... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Can gold rally even if Treasury yields rebound? Over short horizons the gold price is often driven by the same factors that determine US Treasury yields. This means that the price of the precious metal now looks increasingly vulnerable to a... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to rally as industry braces for strikes The platinum price is set to recover in 2016 as production in South Africa contracts, necessitating a draw-down in the abundant above-ground stocks. We believe that there is a renewed risk of strike... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
