Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Dec.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil inventories declined in December for the first time since the middle of last year as production fell sharply again. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Poor start gives way to some more encouraging signs The prices of key industrial commodities fell further in the first full week of 2016, led by oil, as China worries resurfaced again. The markets also concluded (rightly, in our view) that the... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Three reasons to be positive on silver in 2016 Silver’s prospects will remain closely tied to those of gold in 2016. While Fed tightening and renewed dollar strength should continue to weigh on the prices of gold and silver over the next year or... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to stabilise in 2016 After falling below US$40 per tonne late last year, iron ore prices have edged higher more recently. Although we expect global demand to grow only moderately this year, we forecast that prices will be... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How will oil price developments affect copper? The recent slide in the oil price is weighing on the price of copper, in part because it is a reflection of negative investor sentiment towards commodities in general and China’s economy in particular... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why did the recovery lose momentum in 2015? UK GDP growth looks like it slowed sharply in 2015. At first glance, this appears strange considering many factors – such as energy price falls – were supportive of growth. But, it looks like these... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More weakness for soybean prices likely in 2016 Record global harvests and stock levels, further depreciation in the currencies of key producers and subdued Chinese demand all look likely to drag the global price of soybeans lower this year. 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China concerns wash away New Year cheer The first week of the new year has set the tone for what we think will be another disappointing year for Australia. While we are not too concerned by the latest developments in China, there is a clear... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 2015 laggards end year on a high December was a month of mixed fortunes for agricultural commodities in an otherwise pretty forgettable year. Indeed, the S&P GSCI agriculture index plunged 12% y/y in 2015 – the third consecutive... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update A decade of two halves for oil prices We continue to expect the price of Brent, currently around $33 per barrel, to recover to $60 in 2017 and $70 by 2020. Nonetheless, with OPEC in disarray and China uncertainty persisting, we are... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Constrained supply may not be a panacea for alumina prices Malaysia has imposed a 3-month ban on bauxite mining and with further measures likely to follow, alumina supply could struggle in 2016. That said, demand will also be constrained by slower growth in... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks slipped last week despite a slight increase in production and a fall in refinery inputs. However, a sharp fall in gasoline demand and a huge rise in inventories has stolen the... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The modest rebound in export volumes in November wasn’t enough to offset the much larger decline in the previous month, suggesting that exports contracted over the fourth quarter as a whole. As things... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A bit of a breather in December The prices of industrial metals recouped a little lost ground in the final month of 2015, but still fell sharply last year. The relative resilience in December probably reflected a number of factors... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read