Energy Update

Energy prices are not that high in real terms

Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels...

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Green Transition Chart Pack

Green Transition Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Green Transition Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the...

18th January 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Middle East tensions to keep a floor under oil prices

The Middle East continued to be the focus of commodity markets, although most prices ended the week either flat or lower. That said, the escalation of Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

China commodity imports to hold firm, for now

China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months.

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Industrial metals price weakness rolls over into 2024

This week was a mixed bag for commodities. As tensions in the Middle East continued to rise, oil prices edged up despite an increase in US petroleum product stocks pointing to sluggish demand...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain...

5th January 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Update

China’s PMIs still underplaying commodity demand

China PMI surveys suggest that the economy lost momentum in December, but we suspect that the surveys are not reflecting economic reality. Activity and import data all point to resilient commodity...

2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions

While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was...

22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

COP28 & long-run energy demand

The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy...

21st December 2023 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Nov.)

After hitting a new record in October, global aluminium production slipped back in November. We suspect that the new record will not be toppled in the coming months owing to power rationing in China...

20th December 2023 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

A perfect storm at sea

The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on...

19th December 2023 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be...

18th December 2023 · 0 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Fed-induced rally; Panama canal disruptions

This week was a tale of two halves. In the first, prices generally came under pressure, including oil which continued its post-OPEC+ meeting plunge as concerns of oversupply persist. In the second...

15th December 2023 · 5 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Metals to benefit in 2024 from green transition

We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the...

15th December 2023 · 31 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Another year of sluggish growth

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid...

13th December 2023 · 22 mins read