Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally won’t be sustained The recent rally in the Canadian dollar, which has been driven by rising oil prices and downgrades to the outlook for US interest rates, is unlikely to last beyond the middle of this year. Admittedly... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rally in soybean prices unlikely to be sustained With a big Brazilian harvest now under way amidst large global stocks and strong competition in export markets, we think the US price of soybeans is more likely to fall than rise further this year. 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Is recent news out of China positive for metals? In the last week or so, we have received the short- and long-term plans of the Chinese government at the National People’s Congress (NPC) as well as activity and spending data for the first two months... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Much more to gold’s rally than changes in monetary policy The price of gold has been boosted further today by the apparent dovishness of the Fed. Indeed, the consensus view seems to be that the prospects for the precious metal can be distilled down to... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update High stocks remain a headwind for nickel prices With the stainless steel sector expected to remain in the doldrums, the prospects for nickel demand are poor. Falling production should still mean that the market deficit will deepen this year... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US inventories of crude oil rose for the fifth consecutive time last week, despite a fall in US oil production and an increase in inputs to refineries. What’s more, gasoline stocks declined again as... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors remain bearish, despite rising prices Surging prices of a number of agricultural commodities since the middle of last month, helped by a weaker US dollar, pushed the S&P GSCI Agriculture index up by a little over 4%. Furthermore, the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Sentiment towards precious metals improves Precious metals prices continued their upward trend over the last month, bolstered by a weaker US dollar and a scaling back of fears over a hard landing in China. While gold benefited from further... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors become more sanguine on China Over the last few weeks, investors have appeared to come round to our long-held view that fears of a hard landing in China were overdone. Energy and metals prices, in particular, benefited from the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Could there be a deal to freeze oil output without Iran? Russia’s announcement that it supports Iran’s right to increase production probably raises the chance of some sort of deal on freezing output. However, a credible and enforceable deal is far from... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports and exports (Dec.) US imports of semi-manufactured silver are showing signs of improvement, suggesting that industrial demand could be on the mend. Meanwhile, US production of silver continued to fall, supporting our... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in February OPEC production fell in February. However, temporary pipeline outages were the cause of most of the decrease in supply, rather than any concerted effort to cut production. Indeed, it is likely that... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A rising tide lifts all boats A wide range of commodities benefited from improving sentiment towards the sector in the past week, even those – notably iron ore – where the underlying fundamentals remain distinctly bearish... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Palladium price to strengthen, despite high stocks Concerns about China’s demand have been weighing on the price of palladium in recent months. As such, we think the price will recover as investor fears of a hard landing in China are assuaged. However... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in US natural gas prices likely to be a slow-burner High stocks due to the exceptionally mild winter will prevent US gas prices from recovering much this year, but strong demand growth should set the scene for higher prices further down the line. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is ECB easing good or bad for gold? The fall and subsequent rebound in the dollar price of gold after today’s announcement of additional monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) should help to settle the debate over what... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
