Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean activity data for December confirm that the economy slowed in Q4. Our GDP Tracker suggests the economy grew by a lacklustre 2.0% y/y over Q4 as a whole. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another bumper month (and year) for China’s REE exports In December, China’s rare earth (REE) exports were up by nearly 50% m/m – much higher than the 10% m/m average growth seen since the start of 2012. We believe the sharp increase was partly seasonal... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Headwinds strengthen in key African economies Recent figures have only strengthened our belief that the challenges facing Africa’s three largest economies are growing. Nigeria’s botched response to low oil prices has caused the currency to plunge... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Has the tide turned? We do not think that the global economy is performing as badly as many believe. Indeed, our expectation is that growth in China this year is more likely to edge higher than collapse. With this in mind... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap A tough start to the year for frontier financial markets Frontier assets have had a difficult start to the year as fears over global growth caused fresh turmoil in financial markets. Oil producers have been particularly hard hit on the back of the collapse... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Could Russia join OPEC in supporting oil prices? The jump in oil prices today (to a high of $35) on speculation that Saudi Arabia and Russia could soon agree to cut output is at least consistent with our forecasts of a rebound by year-end... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose to a record level last week, driven by another drop in refinery inputs. What’s more, despite lower refinery production, there was another large jump in gasoline stocks... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are lower oil prices good or bad for the world economy? This Focus addresses two of the biggest concerns which have undermined confidence in the global economy and markets this year: worries over China and the further slump in the oil price. While... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s policy reform could spell further trouble for corn prices Recent reports suggest that the Chinese government will stop supporting domestic corn producers and let the market determine prices. If implemented, this could put further downward pressure on global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Making sense of the commodities rout The latest fall in global commodity prices has hit financial markets across the whole of Latin America but the economic impact will be more dispersed. Global energy prices have seen the biggest falls... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil drags ruble down, politics weighs on zloty The fresh leg down in oil prices has caused the ruble to tumble, making it one of the worst-performing EM currencies so far this year. Elsewhere, mounting concerns about populist policymaking in... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Baltic Dry Index a useful economic indicator? Another day, another record low for the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). However, while this measure of sea freight costs may be a helpful guide to the balance of supply and demand for certain commodities and... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Oil prices – how low can they go? There are a number of risks which could cause oil prices to slump to as low as $20 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese import demand for ags slows at the end of 2015 The detailed Chinese import data for December, released earlier today, suggest that the strength of demand for agriculturals continued to ease at the end of 2015. 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s imports suggest platinum back in fashion China’s imports of palladium plunged in 2015 as stocks were drawn down, but a pick-up in car production suggests that demand should recover soon. Meanwhile, imports of platinum were up strongly on the... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Dec.) Gold imports by China and India shot up in 2015, to the highest level since 2013. We expect demand from emerging markets to remain strong in 2016, helping to underpin our positive view on prices. 26th January 2016 · 1 min read