Commodities Weekly All eyes on Doha Commodity prices have generally risen over the past week, despite some appreciation of the US dollar, on a combination of strong Chinese economic data and optimism that an output freeze will be agreed... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) Even after allowing for the sharp decline in the value of petroleum sales, the 3.3% m/m drop in manufacturing sales in February was twice as large as expected, with the drop in sales volumes hinting... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese data point to robust commodity demand First-quarter Chinese economic data suggest a cyclical rebound is underway, driven by state-sector spending. The data justify some of the recent strength in commodity prices and underpin our forecast... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Support for the price of cocoa should fade later this year The price of cocoa is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued supply concerns. But as output returns to normal, we think that the price will fall over the second half of the year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Mine supply to tighten across all precious metals Tightening mine supply is one of several factors behind our positive view on precious metals prices this year. Admittedly, for some metals like gold, mine production represents only a small fraction... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Deal or no deal in Doha? We think that the risk of the oil market being disappointed by any deal to freeze production in Doha on Sunday is high, given that oil prices have rallied by over 10% in the last week alone. Any deal... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets benefit from resurgent commodity prices The further recovery in commodity prices over the past month has given financial markets in the emerging world another leg up. We doubt that commodity prices will rise much further, but with clearer... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.) South Africa’s PGM production fell sharply in February for the second consecutive month, suggesting that mining firms are finally cutting output in response to lower prices. Looking ahead, wages are... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock movements more related to supply than demand With large divergences in stock movements between individual metals, it is unlikely that industrial demand has been the main driver. Instead, trends in inventories appear to have had a better... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC trims its demand outlook on growth fears OPEC production was stable last month. However, the group has cut its forecast for demand growth this year on fears of slower economic growth in China and Latin America. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Still some way off from sustainable aluminium price rally Global aluminium output fell again in February, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). But smelter restarts in a still over-supplied market could limit the scope for price increases... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glut of grains & soybeans heading into this year’s harvests The USDA’s latest demand and supply estimates continue to provide little evidence of any shortage of global corn, wheat and soybean supplies heading into the 2016/17 season. As such, we think prices... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A strong quarter for China’s industrial commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes rose in March, rounding off a strong quarter for import demand. However, local stocks have been building, suggesting that we will need to see a pick-up in activity if... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The tin rally is all about supply The price of tin has rallied by more than other metals prices since mid-January. We think this reflects the tight supply picture and low stocks. However, with growth in demand likely to remain subdued... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update PMs lose momentum but technical outlook remains positive Expectations that the Fed will hike rates sooner rather than later, coupled with the uncertainty still surrounding China’s economy (although both sentiment and the hard data have improved lately)... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
