Global Markets Update Rebound in oil prices is indeed a game-changer The recovery in oil prices has now taken Brent above our end-2016 forecast of $45 per barrel. We would not be surprised to see the rally pause for breath soon, but remain comfortable with our view... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets Financial markets across the Gulf have performed well over the past month, supported by the continued recovery in oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian markets have been buoyed by last month’s decision by... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update A strong first quarter for China’s metals imports China’s metals imports remained high in March, reflecting the general optimism about a pick-up in demand. However, recent price rises and signs of stockpiling in China suggest that import growth may... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s PGM imports point to strong demand in Q1 China’s imports of palladium and platinum were up strongly in the first quarter as the tax break on small cars and relatively low prices stimulated demand for PGMs in the local market. Looking ahead... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity The Russian government’s use of its oil funds to finance the budget deficit will cause the monetary base to expand and is likely to push the banking sector from having a deficit of liquidity to a... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories rose last week despite a jump in inputs to refineries, while gasoline stocks were down slightly. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output grew by 0.7% y/y in March, although it was down on the same quarter a year earlier. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Ditching of Chinese subsidies unlikely to rein in exports China’s decision to scrap its export subsidy programme will do little to help overcome huge surpluses of aluminium and steel, or to allay concerns about it dumping excess production on world markets... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released today, show that global steel output fell by 0.5% year on year in March, up from declines of 3.3% and 7.1% in January and February respectively. That said... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors turn positive on agriculturals again After the combined net-short position in eight of the main agriculturals we cover rose to a record level at the start of March, investor confidence has rebounded. Indeed, a weaker US dollar and more... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices rebound in April Having wobbled in late March, most commodity prices have rebounded of late. Stronger economic data for March out of China has assuaged some concerns about demand and more than offset the negative... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting used to lower growth Global growth was sluggish in the first quarter, but it is likely to pick up a bit during the rest of the year. A policy-induced rebound in China and recovery in the prices of key commodities should... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver playing catch-up with gold After lagging behind for the past year, the price of silver is finally catching up with that of gold, moving towards our year-end forecast of $19.5 per ounce. Its higher industrial profile, coupled... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Doha disappoints, but oil market likely to rebalance anyway The failure of Sunday’s meeting in Doha to freeze oil production has further undermined the credibility of OPEC. But it has very little impact on our outlook for supply over the rest of the year. We... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia digs its heels in at Doha Saudi Arabia’s insistence that Iran agree to freeze oil production scuppered any chance of a deal in Doha at the weekend and suggests that the Kingdom is in no mood to abandon its oil market strategy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
