Europe Economics Update How have euro-zone consumers spent their oil savings? Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to fall as China plans further sales of stocks With the prospect of further sales of China’s vast state cotton stocks continuing to depress Chinese import demand, and US production rising, we think the price of cotton will drop further this year. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released today, show that global steel output fell by 7.1% year on year in January. Output fell in all major producing regions for the second consecutive month, but... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower oil prices finally boost global growth? Last year, the slump in oil prices turned out to be less of a bonanza for the world economy than most had anticipated. This year we expect oil prices to be more stable, but still relatively low. In... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output fell by nearly 2% y/y in January, largely on account of a decline in China’s production. This supports our view that prices... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another month of solid Chinese metals imports Imports of many industrial metals had surged in December, so somewhat slower growth in January came as no surprise. However, the bigger picture is that China’s imports of metal have remained strong... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish start to 2016 for Chinese agricultural import demand The detailed Chinese import data for January, released earlier today, indicate that import demand for agricultural commodities started the new year as it ended the last: weak. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Bumper start to the year for China’s PGM imports China’s imports of palladium and platinum surged in January. The seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the figures to some extent. Nonetheless, strong car... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices may finally be finding a floor Oil prices have ebbed and flowed in the past week on hopes that at least some OPEC members will be able to agree a deal with Russia to freeze output. Admittedly, the recent talks have left many... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Can gold rally even if Treasury yields rebound? Over short horizons the gold price is often driven by the same factors that determine US Treasury yields. This means that the price of the precious metal now looks increasingly vulnerable to a... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to rally as industry braces for strikes The platinum price is set to recover in 2016 as production in South Africa contracts, necessitating a draw-down in the abundant above-ground stocks. We believe that there is a renewed risk of strike... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks returned to the familiar pattern of strong growth last week after taking a brief respite the previous week. On a more positive note for prices, inputs to refineries rose and oil... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No relief for ags as investors become more bearish Amid all the recent market turmoil, agricultural commodities haven’t performed too badly, with the S&P GSCI Agriculture index having only fallen by just over 1% since the start of the year. While the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cautiously positive on lead demand Lead usage has contracted for two consecutive years. However, some of the downturn can be attributed to destocking, as well as a decline in China’s e-bike production. As these trends run their course... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EM oil producers on the cusp of a crisis? A wave of debt defaults and financial stress in emerging market oil producers seems unlikely but, with energy prices set to stay low, growth is likely to be much weaker than most anticipate. Among the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Hopes of an output deal prop up oil prices The headlines over the last month have focused on the possibility of a deal between Russia and OPEC on oil supply, which culminated in yesterday’s announcement of an agreement to freeze output... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read