Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets

President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an...

28th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal?

This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for...

26th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost

Qatar’s economy will be stuck in the slow lane for much of 2025 as non-hydrocarbon activity slows and LNG output remains constrained. But the North Field will start to come online from Q4 and provide...

26th February 2025 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US

President Trump has signalled that he is open to the possibility of a new trade deal with China, though probably not before tensions rachet up further. This would likely involve China committing to...

25th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Focus

Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape

While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels...

24th February 2025 · 15 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets

Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the...

21st February 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Tariffs or no tariffs, LME copper prices will still fall

Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply...

20th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question

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Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war

The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the...

18th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism

In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening...

14th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs

The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not...

14th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call

President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost...

13th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA

President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in...

13th February 2025 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe

President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does...

13th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some...

13th February 2025 · 0 mins read