OPEC Watch OPEC point to balanced market by the end of the year OPEC’s oil production slipped in May as disruptions to output in Nigeria outweighed increases in production elsewhere. Meanwhile, the group left all of its major forecasts unchanged but suggested that... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Brexit” risks coming into focus Commodity prices have generally risen in the past week, helped by further dollar weakness. However, sentiment already appears to be turning more cautious on renewed concerns over the health of the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy production other shoe to drop Despite the rebound in oil prices this year, domestic energy producers don’t appear to believe in a sustainable recovery judging by the further decline in oil & gas drilling rig activity. Falling... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a boost might “Brexit” provide to gold? There appears to be an increasingly close relationship between the gold price and the chances of the UK voting to leave the European Union, as implied by bookmakers’ odds. This is consistent, of... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Brexit” mean for commodities? A UK vote to leave the European Union (“ Brexit ”) would presumably have a negative impact on global business and investor confidence. This in turn is likely to undermine the prices of industrial... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold rebounds as US real yields hit one-year low The gold price has rallied this week as expectations of a June rate hike by the Fed have been abandoned. However, while we expect that the Fed will resume its tightening later in the year, real... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Nigerian oil output disruptions are another wildcard for prices It is likely that further disruptions to Nigerian oil output over the next few weeks and months will continue to support oil prices, even as production from Canada returns. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.) South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in April, but PGM output did recover somewhat. We maintain that renewed efforts to curb output should underpin price gains later in the year. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories fell for the third week in a row last week thanks to lower net imports and stronger refinery demand. Notably, overall production rose on the week. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What next for tin? The price of tin has risen since the start of the year in large part owing to temporary bottlenecks. However, we think the price gains will prove sustainable given more long-term constraints on supply... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Weather forecasts heat up US natural gas prices Forecasts of an abnormally hot summer should continue to see strong demand for electricity supporting US gas prices. But high production and stocks will limit the upside. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well China’s commodity demand remained strong in May. While arbitrage opportunities and stockbuilding may explain some of the strength, it also looks likely that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be smothered We think that despite the recent optimism that the worst may be over for coal prices, the ongoing structural decline in demand over the next few years will probably lead to a renewed fall in prices. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks look comfortable, for now Exchange stocks of most metals have been falling. The exceptions are lead and tin stocks which have jumped recently, from a low starting point. The ease with which stocks of these two metals have been... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth will benefit from oil price rebound The recent rally in oil prices is a positive for the US economy insofar as it confirms that the drag from falling mining investment will fade by the second half of the year. And with households having... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
