Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

The impact of high terms of trade on Australia

The surge in the terms of trade explains some of the resilience of Australia’s economy as it has probably encouraged the government to spend more money than it would have done without soaring mining...

7th March 2024 · 14 mins read

Commodities Update

China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices

China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support...

6th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

OPEC+ kicking the can down the road

Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance

We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

China PMIs point to stable commodity demand

China’s PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing activity held steady in February and are consistent with stable, if unexciting, growth in commodity demand. That said, we continue to expect a near-term...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Precious Metals Update

Gold prices will climb higher over the next few years

We think that the gold price will rise in each of the next couple of years, driven by the Fed cutting rates a little quicker than is priced into markets, falling US Treasury yields and a softening US...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost

The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this...

29th February 2024 · 7 mins read

Energy Update

North America electricity trade to grow

Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Tin up; we expect prices to rise

Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in...

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Falls in prices starting to hit supply

The prices of a number of individual commodities benefitted this week from producers announcing cuts to supply. Lower supply growth is one of the factors supporting our forecast of modest gains in US...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: China trade data and the commodities demand outlook

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How strong was Chinese commodities demand at the start of 2024? What do official growth and spending targets signal about demand over the coming year?

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Jan.)

Global aluminium production was unchanged in January compared to December. This reinforces our view that production growth will soften this year.

20th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Natural gas and grains prices give way

The plunge in natural gas prices breathed some life into what was otherwise a relatively quiet week in commodity markets. Prices have fallen heavily in most major gas markets as stocks remain high for...

16th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Europe's aluminium industry not dead yet

Higher aluminium prices and lower production costs should incentivise Europe’s smelters to restart some production in both 2024 and 2025. The introduction of CBAM in 2026 means prices will then...

15th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Wave of supply will keep nickel prices low

We think the huge expansion in nickel supply will keep the market balance in a sizeable surplus this year. Accordingly, we don’t think the price will muster a recovery from its recent slump.

12th February 2024 · 2 mins read