Energy Watch Rumours of OPEC’s death have been greatly exaggerated OPEC has managed to confound its sceptics (including us) by masterminding an agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut output substantially next year. This Energy Watch looks at the... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices The rise in oil prices following the recent OPEC deal to cut output has supported financial markets across the Gulf over the past month. Stock markets have perked up and spreads of dollar bonds over... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Mixed picture for metals stocks in 2016 Aside from a 14% m/m jump in copper inventories, there haven’t been any big changes in stocks over the past month. However, the year-to-date picture is more mixed, with the aluminium, tin and zinc... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tightening still consistent with strong commodity demand Yesterday’s US rate hike was widely anticipated, which probably explains the relatively muted responses in commodity markets. We expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening in 2017, which... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks fell last week as imports dropped. But production grew again, highlighting the risk that output cuts by OPEC and the resulting increase in prices will simply encourage more non-OPEC... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) China’s activity data for November painted a positive picture for metals demand. However, there are signs of a slowdown in the all-important construction sector which, coupled with official efforts to... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Angola, Libya and Nigeria push OPEC’s output higher Further increases in output from Libya and Nigeria will make it more difficult for OPEC to reach their output quota of 32.5m bpd. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Reasons to remain sceptical of “major shift” in Saudi oil policy The recent agreement reached by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has prompted speculation of a major shift in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy, but we remain cautious. After all, the Kingdom has... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices jump on the prospect of output cuts The price of oil rose sharply as oil producers surpassed market expectations by agreeing to cut supply by 1.8m barrels a day from January. Meanwhile, industrial metals prices rose further as investors... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus on the Fed statement and Trump’s reaction The prices of most industrial metals surged this week, largely due to increased investor interest. Strong China’s imports in November and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US further buoyed... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Limited upside for platinum prices in 2017 Platinum has substantially underperformed its sister metals – palladium and rhodium – this year as its higher correlation with gold has seen its price fall sharply since the US presidential election... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale The Russian government’s sale of part of its stake in Rosneft to the Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore late yesterday has raised questions about what the deal means for sanctions, the currency... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack OPEC takes centre stage OPEC’s confirmation that it would cut production next year in an attempt to reduce the surplus in the market caused oil prices to surge at the end of November. The surprise victory for Donald Trump in... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) A slump in PGM output drove South Africa’s total mine production lower in October, after tentative signs of a recovery in September. While this is not good news for South Africa’s economy, it is... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes jumped in November, despite markedly higher US dollar prices and a weaker renminbi. Trends in activity suggest that import demand will remain robust in the near-term... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
