Commodities Update Commodities shrug off tighter monetary policy The prices of most commodities rose in the wake of the 25bp hike in US interest rates and the 10bp rise in China’s interest rates this week. While tighter monetary policy represents a headwind for... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will OPEC extend its production cuts? Steadily rising crude stocks and falling prices have made it more likely that OPEC will prolong its production cuts beyond June. However, there are significant hurdles which will need to be overcome... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities unfazed by US monetary tightening Yesterday’s US rate hike was widely anticipated, but we expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening in 2017. That said, US interest rates will remain historically low and, in any case, other... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks declined slightly last week, after rising for nine consecutive weeks, as net imports fell sharply. Product stocks also continued to slump. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks’ gold demand starts the year on a positive note The latest data show that central banks’ holdings of gold increased in January. However, we think that a strong US dollar will be a major headwind for gold demand from the official sector this year. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jan./Feb.) China’s activity and investment data for the first two months of the year point to robust metals demand. However, we are wary that this may represent the high point of 2017, given signs of a steadily... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia softening opposition to OPEC deal extension Saudi Arabia has continued to comply with its side of November’s OPEC agreement and recent comments from policymakers suggest that the Kingdom’s opposition to extending the deal beyond June is easing... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production falls as compliance improves OPEC continued to reduce its production in February. However, the group also revised upwards its expectations for non-OPEC output. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jan.) South Africa’s overall mine production recovered slightly in January, as higher prices acted as an incentive for producers to increase output. The strength in the output data was broad-based, with... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor enthusiasm on the wane It has been a disappointing week for commodity prices, against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and the likelihood of an imminent rate hike in the US. The strong US employment report on Friday removed... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Soaring copper stocks reflect waning investor optimism The big story this month is an unexpected surge in LME copper stocks, which appears to be related to investors closing long positions in the futures market. At the same time, China’s exchange stocks... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Fed tightening to prove too strong a headwind for gold prices After rising for most of February, gold prices have slumped in recent days, falling below the $1,200 per ounce mark, on expectations that the Fed will press ahead with a rate hike next week. We expect... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Has the stability in oil prices come to an end? A return to more normal levels of volatility in oil prices seems likely over the next few months as investors question the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts. However, we still expect prices to... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Gas and coal prices fall but oil prices remain stable Oil prices were remarkably quiet in February. Indeed, the price of Brent moved by less than $2 per barrel during the month, but prices have fallen so far in March. February proved to be a more... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch A bright road ahead for cobalt…but beware of bumps While we have been positive on the prospects for cobalt prices for some time now, we think that the most recent rally is overdone. Admittedly, the market is tightening. But, in our view, the move-up... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Policy uncertainty is weighing on US agriculture In late February, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first assessment of the prospects for US crops in 2017/18. In this Commodities Watch, we will discuss the USDA’s forecasts and... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
