US Economics Weekly Will falling oil prices knock the economy off course? The further drop in oil prices this week, to below $43pb, means that the recovery in mining investment seen in the first half of the year may be at least partly reversed in the second. That said, we... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil slides on oversupply concerns The price of Brent fell below $45 per barrel this week, reflecting investor concerns about oversupply. In contrast, the prices of most industrial metals rose, despite little in the way of positive... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How low will oil prices go this time? Fears about unrelenting growth in US oil production have pulled down oil prices again, despite stocks beginning to fall. However, faster demand growth combined with OPEC’s production cuts should be... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell again last week. However, production and net imports both rose. Meanwhile, higher demand prompted a fall in gasoline inventories. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is palladium flying too close to the sun? Increased speculative activity appears to have been the main driver of the recent surge in the price of palladium, which reached a sixteen-year high of $910 per ounce on 9th June. However... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise after a poor start to the year Global oil demand was disappointing in the first quarter of this year. Indeed, this is one reason why prices have continued to fall despite OPEC and some major non-OPEC producers extending their... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is this the beginning of a commodity downturn? The main commodity indices have edged lower this year but the headline figures mask very diverse underlying price movements. Looking ahead, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop for commodities... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.7% y/y rise in global steel production in May, down from 5.0% in April. Nonetheless, this still compares very favourably with the 0.8% increase in steel... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose by 4.8% y/y last month, down from 6.4% y/y a month earlier. However, unlike in April when the growth was all in... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks are not painting a clear picture of demand Exchange stocks generally fell over the last month. The bigger picture is that there have been sharp drawdowns in global exchange stocks of aluminium and zinc and a large build in copper inventories... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The losing streak continues It has been a poor week for most commodity prices. The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates on Wednesday weighed on the prices of gold and industrial metals. Oil prices continued to drop, partly due... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold’s luck to run out The price of gold was largely unaffected by the Fed’s decision to raise its policy rate target by 25bp, to between 1.00% and 1.25%, yesterday. While many have attributed the resilience in the gold... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (May) China’s activity data were broadly stable in May, but a slowdown in construction starts and growth in investment do not bode well for future metals demand. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude inventories resumed their downward trend last week, but gasoline stocks increased on the back of low demand and high refinery output. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Negative sentiment weighing on prices It has been a dismal few weeks for commodity prices. Prices have generally fallen amid signs of somewhat slower Chinese growth and concerns about subdued growth in oil demand and still-high stocks... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
