Commodities Update China’s PMIs paint a mixed picture While the unofficial PMI data point to an acceleration in economic growth in July, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained, given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening. This view... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil and copper lead the way This week, the prices of most commodities benefited from a further weakening of the US dollar and data showing that China’s growth accelerated in Q2. But individual fundamentals also played a role. In... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: OPEC ‘cap’ will have little economic effect Nigeria’s agreement with OPEC to cap oil production is unlikely to have much impact on the economy; output was never likely to rise significantly above this level in any case. The key point is that... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks of most metals edge lower Exchange stocks of most metals fell over the last month. With the exception of copper and tin, inventories are now substantially lower than at the start of the year, pointing to tightening markets... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Strong export demand to support US natural gas prices A surge in demand for US natural gas from Mexico and Canada as well as bourgeoning shipments of LNG to Europe and Asia should give a boost to natural gas prices over the next year. 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The fourth consecutive weekly drop in commercial crude stocks in the US provides further evidence that OPEC’s output cuts are starting to have an impact on inventory levels. We expect this trend to... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports point to strong demand so far in 2017 China’s detailed trade data, released yesterday, revealed that metals demand was strong in the first six months of the year, which helps to explain the recent price rallies. That said, we expect... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Second half of the year bodes well for coffee Last month, the spread between arabica and robusta coffee prices fell to its lowest level in over ten years. Elsewhere, France recently announced that it will curb the use of palm oil in biofuels... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM consumers bouncing back EM retail sales growth picked up for a third consecutive month in May and is now running at a 12-month high. What’s more, the improvement has been widespread across different EM regions. In Russia and... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook All good, for now Commodity prices have held up well over the last quarter, encouraged by positive economic data out of China, falling expectations of US interest rate rises and signs that crude oil stocks are finally... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The weaker dollar bolsters commodities This week started on a positive note for industrial commodities with strong June activity and investment data out of China. A weaker US dollar was also supporting commodity prices, more generally... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Worst fears over Qatar crisis fade Diplomatic efforts have failed to bring an end to the stand-off between Qatar and the so-called Anti-Terror Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain). Encouragingly, though, there are signs that... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Four key risks facing the oil market The oil market’s attention is firmly on rising production in the US and the outlook for stocks there. However, there are a number of risks elsewhere which are potentially being overlooked and which... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.5% y/y rise in global steel production in the first half of 2017, which compares favourably with the 0.8% rise in 2016. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.1% y/y last month, up from 4.8% y/y a month earlier. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
