Precious Metals Update What does the North Korean crisis mean for gold prices? The price of gold was a key beneficiary of the recent increase in tensions between the US and North Korea. While we think that the chances of a full-scale war are quite slim, there remains huge... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Markets appear surprised by bearish WASDE data The prices of wheat and soybeans plunged after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised up its estimates of global production. What’s more, it is projecting that global inventories of wheat and... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc rally to fade towards year-end After falling at the start of the year, robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher in recent months. The strength in prices is likely to persist over the next couple of... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Rising OPEC production puts market rebalancing at risk Another rise in OPEC’s production in July has not helped the group’s efforts to rebalance the oil market. However, strong demand and slower growth in non-OPEC output should still help to reduce stocks... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.) PGM output slumped in June as miners struggled with rising costs and falling metal content. We expect output to drop further in the second half of the year. 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling stocks to support oil prices, even if the dollar rises again A weaker US dollar has given some support to oil prices over the last month. However, the inverse relationship is likely to break down again over the next year as rising US interest rates support the... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The ninth consecutive weekly fall in US commercial crude stocks provides further evidence that the market is rebalancing. We expect this trend to continue over the next few months at least, which... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor start to H2 2017 for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in July. High stocks of many commodities and growing domestic production dampened demand for imports. What’s more, the prospect of cooling domestic... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better economic news boosts industrial commodities A sharp rise in China’s July manufacturing PMI boosted the prices of most commodities last week, but we don’t think that the upturn in China’s economic activity will be sustained, given the increasing... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How strong is demand for coal, really? The lack of timely coal consumption data on a monthly basis – at least at a global level – makes it difficult to determine changes in coal demand in the short term. Our new Capital Economics World... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q2 & H1 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell to the lowest level since 2009 in the first half of 2017. Higher prices, fading geopolitical risks and soft jewellery fabrication were the main factors behind the weakness in... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Rational exuberance We don’t think that the valuations of many risky assets have become unsustainably high. This is because their rise has been supported by a structural decline in real interest rates, which is likely to... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices lead the way up It was generally good news for energy commodities in July. Oil prices jumped as stocks in the US slumped, the market grew concerned about the possibility of sanctions on Venezuela and the dollar fell... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another increase in refinery runs led to a fall in crude oil stocks last week. We expect refinery runs to remain high in the coming weeks. This should lead to a sharp drawdown in inventories and help... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals start Q3 on a strong note A weaker US dollar and stronger Chinese economic data boosted metals prices last month. Aluminium was the only exception. (See Chart.) In most cases, industrial metals prices are now more aligned with... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A weaker US dollar boosts commodities The prices of most commodities rose last month. In part, this was due to a weaker dollar. But stronger economic activity data for China also played a role. We think that growth in China is likely to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
