Energy Watch Is the surge in oil prices sustainable? The last three months have seen a turnaround in the oil market as investor sentiment turned positive and prices jumped. This Energy Watch will briefly take stock of what has been driving prices up... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets soften in September A combination of rising political risk and falling commodity prices caused key African markets to weaken over the past month. Only a few markets bucked the trend, and they gained very little ground. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand rises as global economy strengthens Global oil demand was given a boost in the second quarter of this year largely due to a stronger global economy. The latest data point to a bright outlook for oil demand over the next year as the... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on Russia’s new fiscal rule In this Focus, we answer five key questions on Russia’s recently-approved fiscal rule, and explain what it means for the government’s deficit, debt and oil funds. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in exports and demand from refineries last week helped to draw down crude stocks. We expect these trends to continue which should help to narrow the Brent-WTI spread over the next few weeks. 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets get no boost from higher oil prices Financial markets in the Gulf economies have performed poorly in the past few weeks despite the sharp rise in oil prices. Equity markets have actually fallen back and, in some countries, dollar bond... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil price jump fails to lift markets in oil exporters The jump in oil prices, from $51pb at the start of September to around $59pb at the time of writing, should provide a fillip to the large frontier oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the recent jump in oil prices The latest rise in oil prices reflects concerns about Kurdish supply and hopes for another extension of OPEC’s output cuts, neither of which may have a lasting influence on prices. But the oil market... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Aug.) The latest trade data for India and China show that imports remained soft in August. We had always believed that demand in India would weaken in Q3 as a result of the implementation of the Goods &... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What can the Baltic Dry Index tell us? The recovery in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) since early 2016 corroborates data showing a pick-up in global growth and the strength of commodity prices, notably the metals. However, we think that the... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.9% y/y increase in global steel production in January-August, with output rising in all the major producers except Japan. That said, global output was... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s increase in US crude stocks is mainly due to the lingering impact of Hurricane Harvey. Demand for petroleum products remains reasonably strong, which should help the market rebalance. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output declined by 1.3% y/y last month. This compares with a 1% y/y increase a month earlier. Nonetheless, production... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Gold imports likely to ease The strength of gold imports in recent months is the result of temporary issues related to the new GST rather than buoyant underlying demand. As these issues get resolved, we expect gold imports to... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Metal Output Monitor China increased its output of most refined metals in the first eight months of the year. The main exceptions were zinc and nickel. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
