Industrial Metals Update US tariffs on steel and aluminium appear inevitable The price of US steel has already benefited from the prospect of heightened protectionism in the US. Indeed, prices could actually fall back if President Trump decides to moderate his actions to... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities spring back The prices of most commodities rose this week, helped by a depreciation of the US dollar and a revival in global equity prices. Industrial metals, in particular, posted some large gains, although... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the recent fall in oil prices a taste of things to come? Surging supply and slowing demand growth are likely to push the global market back into a small surplus in 2018 which should put further downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (higher) forecasts for gold and silver We are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for gold and silver prices to reflect the fact that we no longer expect the US dollar to strengthen this year. Nonetheless, we are not inclined to do a U-turn... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week. Meanwhile, production in the US continued to grow. We expect the surge in US output to push the market back into a surplus this year... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US infrastructure plan won’t lift commodities demand We are sceptical that President Trump’s infrastructure plan will be approved by Congress. What’s more, even if congressional approval is forthcoming, the reliance on state and local governments and... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) There was a significant rise in OPEC’s forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018, reflecting recent strong growth in the US. However, we still think that the cartel is underestimating growth in output... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in the cross-fire The prices of metals and energy commodities slumped this week in the wake of the sell-off in global equity markets and a general move out of riskier assets. Markets shrugged off data showing strong... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices have further to fall We think that concerns about surging supply in the US will put further downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, even if global equity markets stabilise. 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2018 to be the year for platinum We expect the platinum market to be broadly in balance this year, after a sizeable surplus in 2017. However, the recent price increase means that this is already largely factored into prices. As such... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Is the party over? Commodity prices started 2018 on a high, bolstered by optimism about global growth prospects and the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. However, we think there are now clear signs that growth in... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in January. Admittedly, this partly reflects seasonal volatility associated with the Chinese New Year. But it also seems likely that demand from the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Production increased dramatically last week, mainly due to revisions to the historical data. However, output is growing much more quickly than many expected which should continue to put downward... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell to its lowest level in eight years in 2017. Weak investment demand accounted for most of the decline. With demand from India and China likely to remain subdued and Fed... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities caught up in the wider sell-off The latest falls in commodity prices have more to do with risk aversion than any deterioration in underlying demand and supply fundamentals. That said, we had always expected commodity prices to fall... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
