UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGM prices got ahead of themselves After years of oversupply, there are now clear signs that the PGM market is tightening. Falling mine supply should help the market to rebalance, but a higher rate of recycling could put a cap on... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big a deal are oil prices for the MSCI EM Index? The recent increase in the price of oil has added further fuel to the rally in emerging market (EM) equities. Although we think that some of this support will unwind as oil prices slip back, we still... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q3 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell in Q3 to the lowest level in 8 years, continuing the downward trend so far in 2017. Weak jewellery demand and stalling ETF inflows were the main factors behind the decline... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC unlikely to reach stocks target Even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of next year, stocks are still likely to exceed their fiveyear average, which should put some downward pressure on oil prices next year. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch High stocks remain a problem for cotton After a strong start to the year, the price of cotton has drifted lower since. In this Commodities Watch, we will discuss the main drivers of the cotton market and how they will affect prices in 2018... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp rise in US demand for products is in line with other indicators showing a pick-up in consumption recently. But record levels of oil production will delay the wider oil market rebalancing. 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slump China’s commodity import volumes plummeted in October. While a shift in the timing of the MidAutumn Festival explains much of the decline, we think that there are now clear signs that domestic demand... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Oil prices jumped in recent days on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but, assuming that a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is avoided, the fundamentals suggest... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Too soon to get excited about nickel The medium-term outlook for nickel demand has improved given that electric vehicles are likely to have a high nickel content. But, for now, the market is more than comfortably supplied. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price overvalued according to most indicators Elevated geopolitical risks and dovish market expectations for Fed tightening have supported the price of gold this year. While we have revised up our end-2017 and end-2018 forecasts, we still expect... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil market counting on extension to OPEC output cuts After looking like they may have run out of steam in September, the rallies in coal and oil prices returned with a vengeance last month. Indeed, speculation about supply restrictions – by OPEC for the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Nickel soars on positive outlook for electric vehicles The prices of most metals rose in October, despite some appreciation of the US dollar and somewhat softer economic data out of China. Optimism about future demand, notably associated with the electric... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The large drop in stocks of crude and gasoline last week would appear, at first glance, to be a further sign that the oil market is tightening. But much of the reduction in crude stocks was due to... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities on a tear October was another strong month for the prices of industrial metals and oil as optimism about demand prevailed while prospects for supply deteriorated. We are more cautious, however. There are now... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Capacity cuts starting to be felt in China’s PMIs China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs diverged again in October but they both paint a subdued picture of China’s activity. Somewhat ironically, lower commodity output is a key factor... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read