Energy Update New (higher) forecast for oil prices Given the rise in potential risks to supply, stronger-than-expected demand in Q1 and slumping output in Venezuela, we are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for the prices of Brent and WTI. But we... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Too soon to worry about supply Commodity prices have generally had a strong start to the year, boosted in particular by risks to supply. However, in many cases, supply has not been disrupted yet and the worst fears of supply... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A sluggish recovery The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa should continue over the coming months but growth is likely to be weaker than most anticipate. The rebound is being led by the Gulf as the drag from... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks of most metals edge lower Total exchange stocks of most industrial metals have fallen over the past month, but cancelled warrants have in most cases also declined which points to lacklustre demand. We expect inventories to... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slipped last week as net imports slumped. But the big surprise was a jump in demand for gasoline, to a new record. However, we would caution that such large moves in the... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Sanctions on Russia send aluminium soaring Geopolitical concerns intensified this week and led to sharp increases in those commodities at risk of disruptions to supply. In particular, the price of aluminium surged following the announcement of... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How worried should we be about rising tensions? At least part of this week’s increase in oil prices is justified by the sudden escalation in tensions in the Middle East and resulting risk to oil supplies, either from sanctions or damage to oil... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGMs caught up in panic over Russian sanctions The US sanctions against Russia have supported the prices of platinum and palladium this week. However, Russian output is unlikely to be affected. This, coupled with weakening demand fundamentals... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity import volumes held up in Q1 China’s commodity import volumes picked up in March, after the holiday-related slump in February. However, we expect import volumes to ease back in the coming months as activity slows as a result of... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium bears the brunt of US sanctions on Russia Aluminium is the only commodity which has been directly affected by the latest round of sanctions on Russia, but even there we think that the boost to prices will be temporary. Instead, the surge in... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Geopolitical fears rise, higher oil price offers some relief Mounting tensions surrounding the conflicts in Syria and Yemen have rattled financial markets in the MENA region, but the associated rally in oil prices should limit the economic fallout for the Gulf... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC revised up its forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018 again and estimated that the market was in a surplus in the first quarter. Admittedly, the cartel still expects the market to be in deficit... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Russian sanctions’ boost to aluminium to be short-lived The sanctions on Russian producer, Rusal, are likely to support aluminium prices in the short term. However, Russian output is unlikely to collapse. What’s more, higher prices will encourage... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports rebounded and production rose again. The recent increase in prices is likely to encourage even more US production, which should weigh on prices... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Geopolitical tensions boost prices Commodity prices rebounded at the start of April on the back of concerns over US sanctions on Russia and escalating tensions in the Middle East, despite the dollar being flat. Indeed, only the... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch How could rising protectionism affect metals markets? Trade protectionism has escalated dramatically since the start of the year and threatens to turn into a full-blown trade war. In this Metals Watch, we look at the most recent developments on trade and... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
