Commodities Weekly Quiet after the storm The earlier surge in oil and industrial metals prices came to an abrupt halt this week as oil stabilised and there were sharp falls in the prices of some metals. In particular, the US Treasury’s... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the party over? In the last edition of The Capital Markets Analyst, we warned that the party in the financial markets might not last much longer. Since then, the US S&P 500 has fallen considerably from a record high... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices: Africa’s winners and losers Commodities make up a large part of Africa’s exports but the degree of dependence and product diversification varies across the region. While the value of net exports of energy producers, including... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand & Supply Monitor (Q1) China’s industrial activity held up well in the first quarter of 2018, but year-on-year growth in some of the more metal-intensive sectors slowed from the previous quarter. Moreover, we expect the... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) The latest trade data for India and China showed that imports of gold in the two largest consumers weakened in March. Higher prices probably discouraged purchases. We had warned that this could happen... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower prices later in the year... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.0% y/y increase in global steel production in March, driven by higher output in China, India and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the coming... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest jump in oil The latest rise in oil prices has eased fiscal concerns in a number of EM oil producers but only at the expense of increased balance of payments concerns in some EM oil consumers, notably Turkey and... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why OPEC won’t prolong its cuts The rise in oil prices, fall in crude inventories and surge in non-OPEC production, especially in the US, mean that OPEC is likely to gradually increase output next year rather than extend its cuts. 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price has further to fall The US Treasury’s decision to soften its position on sanctions against Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, has sent the price of aluminium tumbling in the past couple of days. We think that prices will... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with higher oil prices We think the recent rise in oil prices is likely to be reversed. But even if prices rose steadily to $100pb, there would be little fallout for global growth, despite an increase in headline inflation. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi talk of $100pb oil doesn’t signal shift in oil policy The recent jump in oil prices to $75pb has been fuelled in part by reports that the Saudi authorities have expressed a desire for prices of $100pb. But we don’t think a fundamental shift in Saudi oil... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin to tread water Growth in tin demand is expected to slow this year, but remain slightly stronger than the historical trend. However, constrained supply should support prices, which we expect to be relatively flat... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Rising tensions boost prices Geopolitical concerns continued to be the main driver of commodities prices this week. In particular, fears that US sanctions could be broadened to include Russian producer, Nornickel, buoyed the... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Global aluminium output continued to grow in March. We expect growth in output to pick up pace over the coming months as higher prices and the effects of the US sanctions on Russia prompt producers... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
