Industrial Metals Update

Real metals prices are high and have further to rise

Compared to their pre-pandemic averages, metals prices are high even after adjusting for inflation. We think that as green transition-related demand increases and monetary easing gets underway, real...

25th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics

Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document...

25th January 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices?

Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to...

23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2023)

Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.9% in 2022. We think softening output growth in China will cause global growth to fall back again this year.

22nd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

LNG frozen out of Red Sea, but gas prices to fall further

Natural gas prices fell sharply this week, despite Qatar's decision to avoid sending LNG tankers through the Red Sea. We think the relative calm in the natural gas market reflects the fact that gas...

19th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Green demand to spur copper price gains in 2024

After a subdued 2023, we think the copper price will fare much better this year. We expect supply growth to moderate, while demand growth will be bolstered by the green transition.

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

Energy prices are not that high in real terms

Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels...

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Green Transition Chart Pack

Green Transition Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Green Transition Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the...

18th January 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Middle East tensions to keep a floor under oil prices

The Middle East continued to be the focus of commodity markets, although most prices ended the week either flat or lower. That said, the escalation of Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

China commodity imports to hold firm, for now

China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months.

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Industrial metals price weakness rolls over into 2024

This week was a mixed bag for commodities. As tensions in the Middle East continued to rise, oil prices edged up despite an increase in US petroleum product stocks pointing to sluggish demand...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain...

5th January 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Update

China’s PMIs still underplaying commodity demand

China PMI surveys suggest that the economy lost momentum in December, but we suspect that the surveys are not reflecting economic reality. Activity and import data all point to resilient commodity...

2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions

While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was...

22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

COP28 & long-run energy demand

The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy...

21st December 2023 · 4 mins read