Precious Metals Update New (higher) forecasts for gold and silver We are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for gold and silver prices to reflect the fact that we no longer expect the US dollar to strengthen this year. Nonetheless, we are not inclined to do a U-turn... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week. Meanwhile, production in the US continued to grow. We expect the surge in US output to push the market back into a surplus this year... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US infrastructure plan won’t lift commodities demand We are sceptical that President Trump’s infrastructure plan will be approved by Congress. What’s more, even if congressional approval is forthcoming, the reliance on state and local governments and... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) There was a significant rise in OPEC’s forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018, reflecting recent strong growth in the US. However, we still think that the cartel is underestimating growth in output... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in the cross-fire The prices of metals and energy commodities slumped this week in the wake of the sell-off in global equity markets and a general move out of riskier assets. Markets shrugged off data showing strong... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices have further to fall We think that concerns about surging supply in the US will put further downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, even if global equity markets stabilise. 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2018 to be the year for platinum We expect the platinum market to be broadly in balance this year, after a sizeable surplus in 2017. However, the recent price increase means that this is already largely factored into prices. As such... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Is the party over? Commodity prices started 2018 on a high, bolstered by optimism about global growth prospects and the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. However, we think there are now clear signs that growth in... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in January. Admittedly, this partly reflects seasonal volatility associated with the Chinese New Year. But it also seems likely that demand from the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Production increased dramatically last week, mainly due to revisions to the historical data. However, output is growing much more quickly than many expected which should continue to put downward... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell to its lowest level in eight years in 2017. Weak investment demand accounted for most of the decline. With demand from India and China likely to remain subdued and Fed... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities caught up in the wider sell-off The latest falls in commodity prices have more to do with risk aversion than any deterioration in underlying demand and supply fundamentals. That said, we had always expected commodity prices to fall... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Winter weather and weaker dollar lift energy prices We expect the prices of most energy commodities to fall back over the next few months as the weather normalises and the dollar stabilises. Indeed, prices fell at the start of February amid a broader... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Is the rally starting to fizzle out? The prices of most metals continued to make gains in the first month of 2018. The persistent depreciation of the US dollar supported the prices of all the metals, but notably that of gold. However... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices take a tumble on payrolls The prices of many commodities drifted lower over the course of the week. But the negative tone was set more firmly on Friday by the release of data showing strong growth in US non-farm payrolls and... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read