Energy Update Oil and coal prices to fall, but gas to remain strong We think that differing outlooks for demand will cause the prices of energy commodities to diverge over the rest of this year, despite their recent close correlation. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower production to support grains prices Adverse weather this year has prompted us to revise down our estimates of the forthcoming global grain and soybean harvests. Stocks remain at comfortable levels, but we have also nudged up our price... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Fed tightening to put a cap on gold prices in 2018 Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold edged higher following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates for the second time this year. But we don’t think this is the start of a... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to lower net imports and higher demand from refineries. However, US oil production posted another jump. Output is growing at a much faster rate than demand... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) We think that forecasts of even higher non-OPEC supply this year will push the cartel into increasing output at its meeting next week. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally won’t last The ongoing wage negotiations at several copper mines are likely to keep prices well supported in the short term. However, we think that growing supply and only subdued demand will weigh on copper... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on Trump The EU, Canada and Mexico all announced retaliatory tarrifs on certain imports from the US this week. Although we doubt that this is the start of a full-blown trade war, the risk of one is greater now... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weakness in China’s oil imports only temporary China’s commodity import volumes rebounded in May owing to a pick-up in demand for metals. However, imports of energy commodities remained weak. We still think that commodity import growth is likely... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver’s outperformance won’t last While a jump in US Treasury yields has weighed on the price of gold over the past month, the price of silver has rallied. However, we doubt that silver will outperform gold for long. 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices and the boost to EM oil exporters There are already signs that the large EM oil exporters are responding to higher oil prices by scaling back austerity, which will help to drive stronger growth this year. But it’s notable that higher... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Will the lead rally be sustained? Over the past month, the price of lead has surged. This appears to be the result of a clampdown on recycling plants in China, which has reduced scrap lead supply since the start of the year. However... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil increased last week due to higher net imports and strong growth in US crude production. Indeed, we expect the rapid rise in US output to weigh on crude prices later in the... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow again The dramatic surge in US oil output so far this year has weighed on the price of WTI and widened the Brent-WTI spread. But we still expect US production to grow strongly in 2018-19. An increase in... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals shrug off strong dollar For the most part, metals prices rose in May despite the dollar appreciation. Robust demand and tighter supply buoyed the prices of aluminium, nickel and lead. However, we still think that slower... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Divergence with the dollar unlikely to last In the last month, commodity prices have risen or held steady, despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. We think that the long-run inverse relationship will be restored in the second half of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Surging US output weighs on WTI Oil prices were volatile in May, rising in the first half of the month as President Trump re-imposed sanctions on Iran, then falling in the second half due to rising US production and speculation that... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
