Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged last week due to a rebound in net imports and lower demand from refineries. Production also increased, which is consistent with our view that rising US output will put... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices still have further to fall The recent drop in oil prices is consistent with our view that growth in crude demand is likely to slow sharply over the next few years while supply should be ample. We still think that prices... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to gather pace The recovery in the MENA region will be stronger than most anticipate over the coming quarters. The Gulf economies are set to benefit from rising oil output and fiscal stimulus, while Egypt’s cyclical... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How is gold demand faring in the wake of protectionism? A stronger dollar and lower economic growth in some of the largest consumers should have a negative impact on demand for gold, which could add to the downward pressure on prices. But for now, we still... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Slower growth in China will lead to lower coal prices A slowdown in China’s economic growth over the next year combined with the ongoing rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should weigh on demand for coal and reduce prices. 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trump ups the ante on trade For the most part, commodity prices continued to fall this week as Donald Trump stoked the fire of trade tensions by proposing that $200bn of China’s exports to the US would be subject to a 10% tariff... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Is the sell-off in industrial metals overdone? Trade tensions between the US and China have escalated further in recent weeks, prompting sharp declines in the prices of industrial metals. In this Metals Watch we look at the reasons why metals... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports come off the boil China’s commodity import volumes were markedly lower in June. High prices could have deterred oil imports, while ongoing efforts to combat pollution curbed imports of metals and ores. Crude imports... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO up in the air, Egypt inflation jumps Reports that Saudi Arabia will scrap the Aramco IPO would, if confirmed, deal a symbolic blow to the Kingdom’s reform plans, but the economic impact should be limited. And the news flow on arguably... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil plunged last week due to a slump in net imports. What’s more, it seems likely that the rate of growth in US crude production has slowed recently, which, if sustained, could... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) We think that OPEC’s production is likely to rise significantly over the next couple of months. That said, it could fall back later in the year as output from Iran is curtailed and Venezuelan... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is the Baltic Dry Index on a tear? The recent rally in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of freight costs is somewhat surprising given rising protectionism. However, it appears that much of the rise can be explained by robust demand for coal... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rising protectionism poses a real threat to cobalt Profit-taking and deteriorating investor sentiment were the main drivers of the recent fall in the price of cobalt. As such, for now, we are sticking with our end-year forecast of $100,000 per tonne... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Soybean tariffs causing distortion in export growth The rush by US exporters to beat the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on soybeans by China will provide an artificial boost to second-quarter GDP growth, but will become a potentially significant... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How big a risk does Iran pose to oil supply? The most significant threat facing oil markets is the possibility that US sanctions will lead to a sharp drop in exports from Iran. This Energy Watch will examine how much oil could be lost and what... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
