Commodities Weekly Oil rallies on Iran jitters Oil prices continued to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, this week. However, heightened geopolitical risks... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will rising oil prices trigger fiscal loosening in the Gulf? The recent rally in oil prices has already prompted governments across the Gulf to shift away from the harsh austerity of recent years. But long-term oil price expectations are still low and the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What do higher energy prices mean for Japan? The recent jump in crude oil prices will give a significant lift to inflation in Japan, taking it somewhat closer to the Bank of Japan’s target, but only for a short while. For a large net energy... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sustainable is the recent fall in gold prices? The recent fall has brought the price of gold close to our end-2018 forecast of $1,300. While Fed policy tightening is usually negative for gold prices, higher demand for inflation hedges and a weaker... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week as net imports slumped. However, we remain of the view that surging US oil output will weigh on prices later in the year. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world now less sensitive to oil prices? Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks fall but demand remains subdued Total exchange stocks of most industrial metals have fallen over the past month but cancelled warrants have in most cases also declined, which points to lacklustre demand. Aluminium and tin were the... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) We still think that OPEC’s forecast that the market will be in a large deficit this year is too ambitious. But we do expect it to be close to balance as higher prices depress demand growth and... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil price unlikely to spur investment boom The US decision to exit the Iran nuclear accord pushed crude oil prices up to four-year highs this week, but prices are probably still too low to trigger a renewed investment boom in the Canadian oil... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on US sanctions Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pull the US out of the nuclear agreement with Tehran and re-impose sanctions on Iran’s crude exports caused oil prices to jump this week. Meanwhile, China’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do US sanctions on Iran mean for OPEC? Even though we doubt that the US sanctions will cause a large fall in Iran’s oil output, the rest of OPEC and Russia have enough spare capacity to prevent a shortage if US sanctions turn out to be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update More downside ahead for PGMs Supply of platinum group metals (PGMs) is likely to fall in 2018, as reserve depletion in South Africa takes its toll. Nonetheless, we expect prices to decline from current levels as demand is also... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Have zinc prices further to fall? After two years of sizeable deficits, there are signs that the tightness in the zinc market is easing, which explains why prices have fallen sharply since the start of the year. We think that prices... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as net imports fell. In contrast, US crude production rose to another record. The recent surge in crude prices is likely to lead to even faster growth in... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver mine supply to bounce back in 2018 After two years of declines, we expect silver mine supply to pick up in 2018 as higher industrial metals prices encourage by-product output. This is one reason behind our relatively bearish view on... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read