Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged for the second consecutive week as refinery output dropped and there was an increase in production. We expect stocks to continue to build in the coming weeks, which... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa cooperation remains limited The Ghanaian and Ivorian authorities’ failure to agree on a harmonised farm-gate cocoa price dampened hopes of a ‘Choc-OPEC’ that could effectively influence the global market. But collaboration in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices set to tumble Supply concerns have led to a rise in Chinese steel prices this year. However, weaker growth in demand at a time of rising production suggests that prices will fall back sharply in 2019. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The latest data suggest that Saudi Arabia is indeed capable of increasing production in order to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Weaker oil demand growth and higher supply from both OPEC... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s recovery to peak in mid-2019 The Gulf’s economic recovery looks set to gather pace over the coming quarters and growth is likely to be stronger than most expect. But the recovery will probably peak in the middle of next year and... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Brent/WTI spread to narrow in 2019 There is now a large differential between the prices of US-based WTI oil and the more international benchmark, Brent. In our view, this spread could widen further in the near term, but we expect it to... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Five key questions for LME Week With LME Week starting today, it appears an opportune time to review the main discussion points that will be the hot topics at this seminal event in the metals calendar, and to share our views on them... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Demand weakness means rally is on borrowed time Metal prices rebounded strongly in September, in a relief rally, as the latest round of US-Chinese tariffs were lower than initially feared. However, slower growth in Chinese manufacturing and the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil is losing touch with reality The latest leg-up in the oil price, to around $85 per barrel, was fuelled by persistent fears of a supply shortfall. However, we remain of the view that the market’s worst fears will not be realised... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear oil at $100pb? While we expect oil prices to fall back from their four-year high, a continued rise to $100pb would not deal a big blow to global growth. But it would exacerbate current account pressures in some EMs. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s rising oil output, Turkish lira back under pressure The sharp rise in Russian oil output in September, and talk this week of further increases, suggests that the recovery in Russia’s economy has further to run. The Turkish lira has come under pressure... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil at a four-year high Oil prices have surged in the last month as the market priced in a slump in Iran’s production due to the re-imposition of US sanctions. However, there are now clear signs of weaker demand, which... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Third-quarter slowdown a sign of things to come The world economy seems to have lost some momentum in the past few months and we expect it to slow further in the coming year. World trade growth has fallen sharply, though this is due to weakening... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi lifts oil output, Egypt’s external pressures easing Reports that Saudi Arabia will ramp up oil output over the coming months support our view that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over the rest of this year and in the first half of 2019... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the recent jump in oil prices mean for Asia? The biggest impact of a period of sustained higher oil prices would be in India and the Philippines, whose current account deficits would be pushed even more into the red, putting further downward... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged last week, in large part as a result of higher net imports. We think we could see further stock builds in the coming weeks amid signs of softer demand and weak exports. 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
