Energy Update US energy prices overshoot This week’s dramatic moves in US energy prices reflect underlying fundamentals to some extent. Indeed, we remain positive on the outlook for natural gas prices in 2019, but see little upside for oil... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Divergence in energy prices to continue In light of recent sharp energy price movements, it is worth re-iterating our outlook on prices. We expect that differing projections for demand and supply will prolong the deviation in the price of... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil price slump won’t cause repeat of 2015 Recent declines in oil prices will not by themselves cause a repeat of the 2015 economic slump. But they are a reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates repeatedly. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead looking for longer-term support A temporary cut in output from Nyrstar’s Port Pirie smelter will not stop lead prices falling further as auto sales are slowing and lead-acid batteries see market share eroded by electric cars. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Taking stock of our oil price forecast Following the recent 20% slump, the price of oil is now close to our end-year forecast and we expect prices to fall further in 2019 as growth in demand slows and supply remains ample. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus A brief overview of 700 years of economic downturns The causes of economic downturns have changed over time, from harvest failures and wars, to monetary policy, oil shocks and financial crises. Looking ahead, we think the next major global downturn... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.) OPEC has revised down its forecast for oil demand in 2019 and raised its non-OPEC supply projection. This is consistent with our view that the market will be in surplus next year, which will weigh on... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s push for oil output cuts Saudi Arabia’s push for a fresh round of oil output cuts isn’t a done deal and a sustained unilateral cut is unlikely. Even so, it adds to the evidence of a more erratic approach to oil policy under... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Bear market in oil to persist in 2019 The price of oil (Brent) has dropped by around a fifth from its October peak and we expect it to continue to fall to $60 per barrel by end-2019. Supporting this view is our forecast that the oil... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update November WASDE was all about China At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appeared bearish for the grains and soybeans markets. However, most of the upward revisions to stocks and supply can be explained by revisions to... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas to hold on to its gains We expect the average price of US natural gas to rise in 2019 on a combination of low stocks and strong growth in demand, both domestic and external. This will more than absorb steadily increasing... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt caught in a trap We think that cobalt prices will rebound, by approximately 30%, between now and mid-2019, aided by a temporary halt to cobalt sales and exports from a major operation in the DRC. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices likely to prove unsustainable We believe that the price of US steel is currently too high, despite the 25% tariff on imports, and that slower growth in demand and higher domestic supply should prompt prices to fall back in 2019. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Import demand proves resilient, for now China’s commodity import volumes generally held up well last month, despite the ongoing slowdown in broader economic activity. However, all the signs point to weaker import growth in the coming months... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
