Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower oil prices shouldn’t derail Russia’s recovery The latest fall in oil prices will reduce Russia’s export revenues, but the budget and current account should remain in surplus and a significant shift in fiscal (or monetary) policy is unlikely. As a... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fall in oil prices may slow pace of EM rate hikes The latest fall in oil prices means EM inflation is likely to rise more slowly. While we still expect a majority of EM central banks to hike interest rates, lower energy inflation may delay tightening... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slump in oil prices a small plus for global growth The recent fall in oil prices should give a small boost to global economic activity in the coming year or so. Households will benefit from reduced inflation while any offsetting reduction in mining... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack The Philippines to gain from lower oil prices Most countries in the region are net oil importers (Malaysia is the key exception) and should gain from the recent drop in oil prices, with the Philippines likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil and industrial metals to struggle in 2019 The recent oil price crash has led some to ask if contagion might spread across commodities. However, the decline largely represented a catch-up with base metals and we think the latest drops may... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update A lot of hot air in the US natural gas market We expect that the combination of low stocks and strong demand growth will ensure that the average price of US natural gas will be higher in 2019 than in 2018, despite steadily increasing supply. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Can the Gulf economies weather the slump in oil prices? The latest slump in oil prices is unlikely to lead to major balance sheet strains in the largest Gulf economies and, even if prices fall further to $40-50pb, dollar pegs shouldn’t come under threat... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian markets hold up despite oil fall, Ukraine spat Russian financial markets have tumbled following the naval dispute with Ukraine, but the big picture is that local asset prices have held up well this month given the backdrop of falling oil prices... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India slumped on a y/y basis in October. However, we expect a rebound in imports to India in the coming months as gold prices in rupee terms have dropped back. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls too far, too fast Oil prices fell by 7-8% last Friday on market fears of oversupply, but we suspect that producers will start to withhold exports in the coming months, putting a floor under prices. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the fall in oil prices means for EMs The recent drop in oil prices will help Turkey’s balance of payments adjustment and should boost the terms of trade and growth in large EM oil importers including South Africa and India. The obvious... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly No respite for commodities After a week when the prices of Brent and WTI fell by around 10%, there could be further big moves in commodity prices next week depending on the outcome of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fall in oil prices to boost consumer spending The sharp drop in oil prices this month supports our long-held view that lower inflation will give consumer spending a boost. And we doubt that the sell-off in the equity market will do much damage to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Oil and inflation, Ghosn and corporate governance The slump in global oil prices will deliver a windfall to Japanese firms and households but it creates a headache for the Bank of Japan: lower energy prices will knock half a percentage point off... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) Growth in global steel output accelerated in October to 5.8% y/y, but we expect it to slip back in the coming months as Chinese steel prices have slumped and there are mounting signs of weaker demand. 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
