Latin America Economics Update Mexico: is energy reform now dead? The decision by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to seemingly postpone Mexico’s deep water oil auctions for three years is unlikely to have a major bearing on oil production in the near term. But it... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Slowing Chinese growth does not bode well for prices Steel and iron ore prices fell precipitously in November, as the reality of slowing Chinese demand growth finally filtered through into softer prices. We think that global demand will continue to... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch What to expect from the OPEC meeting We expect OPEC and its allies to agree to cut oil output at this week’s OPEC meeting. This should at least put a floor under prices and may, depending on the size of the cut, boost prices. But with... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update GDP growth heading toward zero in first quarter The combined effect of Alberta’s forced oil production cuts and the slump in oil prices on activity in the sector are set to push Canadian GDP growth down to around 0.5% annualised in the first... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Demand concerns to the fore We continue to expect that slower economic growth in two of the largest consuming economies – the US and China – will weigh on commodity prices in 2019, even if China and the US manage to reach an... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar leaving OPEC not a game changer Qatar’s decision to pull out of the oil cartel, OPEC, is unlikely to have a major impact on global energy markets but it further cements the country’s feud with Saudi Arabia and its allies. The... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s PMIs China’s November survey data point to persistent weakness in economic activity, which will continue to be a factor weighing on the prices of commodities, particularly industrial metals. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump-Xi truce provides some relief for commodities Mounting US protectionism, particularly towards China, has been a key factor weighing on commodity prices for much of this year. As such, news that China and the US are to resume talks provides some... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The calm before the storm For the most part, commodity prices moved in a narrow range this week, but this relative stability may come to an abrupt end soon. Presidents Trump and Xi are set to dine together on Saturday at the... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Cheaper oil both giveth and taketh away Lower oil prices will batter Africa’s big oil exporters. But they will benefit Africa’s oil importers, which make up the majority of the region’s GDP. Lower petrol prices will, for instance, sap... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices batter key economies The recent sharp fall in oil prices will add to headwinds facing the economies of Nigeria and Angola. We estimate that both country’s export revenues will have fallen by about a US$1bn over the past... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin demand battling to soldier on Despite dropping to a multi-year low recently, we think that tin prices will fall further over the next year as Chinese demand falters. However, this should mark a turning point for the tin price, not... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices a net positive for most of Lat Am The drop in oil prices this month is clearly bad news for the region’s large net energy exporters, Colombia and Venezuela; a fiscal squeeze in on the cards in the former and the latter’s crisis will... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Investors to return to precious metals We think that the prices of precious metals, except palladium, will rise in 2019, in part because we expect an early end to Fed tightening and stronger safe-haven demand in the second half of the year... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
