Commodities Weekly Strikes on Russia’s refineries raise oil price risks Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Feb. 2024) The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The copper supply squeeze begins to bite It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the... 15th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and a bit of a recovery in... 8th March 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of high terms of trade on Australia The surge in the terms of trade explains some of the resilience of Australia’s economy as it has probably encouraged the government to spend more money than it would have done without soaring mining... 7th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ kicking the can down the road Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to stable commodity demand China’s PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing activity held steady in February and are consistent with stable, if unexciting, growth in commodity demand. That said, we continue to expect a near-term... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices will climb higher over the next few years We think that the gold price will rise in each of the next couple of years, driven by the Fed cutting rates a little quicker than is priced into markets, falling US Treasury yields and a softening US... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this... 29th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Energy Update North America electricity trade to grow Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tin up; we expect prices to rise Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
