Commodities Weekly Commodities looking for direction from China Commodity prices have generally risen this week, in large part due to optimism about further economic stimulus in China. We are more cautious as we expect the expansionary impact of stimulus to only... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower costs, lower prices for aluminium in 2019 We think aluminium prices will drop from around $1,865 per tonne at present to $1,750 by end-2019 due to rising output and falling costs at a time of sluggish demand. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) Following the decision by OPEC and its allies to reduce output for six months from January, the latest data showed OPEC’s commitment to remove much of the apparent excess supply in the oil market. But... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell for the second consecutive week, despite an increase in production and a lower input to refineries. And the further build in gasoline and distillate stocks suggest softening... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybeans not out of the woods yet The trade talks between the US and China last week ended on a positive note, but the lack of any details dashed hopes of imminent relief for the ailing US soybean sector. Indeed, even if a deal is... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil bucks the negative trend in China’s trade data China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in December. Admittedly, oil imports rose strongly but this was probably opportunistic buying on the back of the slump in price rather than a sign... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade to remain the focus of markets The prices of most commodities rose this week, buoyed by a surge in the oil price, firmer equity prices and optimism about progress in the US-China trade talks. We think that some sort of face-saving... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG prices to follow coal and oil downwards Rising global supply, softer demand and lower prices of other forms of energy will weigh on the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2019. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Oil, housing and the labour market While the recent falls in oil prices may boost consumer spending, they render investment in new LNG projects less attractive and may therefore restrain mining investment. Meanwhile, the slump in... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New gold and silver price forecasts We remain bullish on gold and silver prices and have revised up our end-2019 forecasts to $1,350 per ounce and $17.50 respectively, as we expect both metals to attract investors seeking safe havens. 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update A downward revision to the 2019 oil price forecast Changes to our wider global macroeconomic and market forecasts have prompted us to re-assess the outlook for oil prices. We now expect slower growth in global demand and rising US production to return... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell in the first week of 2019 and domestic production was unchanged. The hefty gains in refined product stocks, despite the dip in the refinery utilisation rate, make it clear that... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to weigh on Chinese imports After strong growth in 2018, we think that China’s imports of most industrial metals will be softer in 2019, reflecting slower economic growth and weaker domestic demand. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update One small step … China has announced a (small) increase in its reported official sector gold holdings for the first time in over two years, but regardless of whether this is repeated in the near future, central bank... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Gold to remain the star performer We suspect that there will be further falls in industrial metals prices as global economic growth slows and investors continue to flee from riskier assets. That said, economic and financial... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose at the end of December as domestic production remained stable and crude inputs to refineries grew. While the slight increase in crude stocks is not too concerning, the surge in... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
