Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks edged up a touch, as inputs to refineries plunged. Product demand is holding up well for now, but we expect it to fall later in the year as the US economy slows. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Global slowdown to drive a fall in energy prices Our forecast of slower global growth in 2019-20 is a key factor underpinning our bearish outlook for the prices of oil and coal. What’s more, we expect further declines in global equity markets and a... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Dec.) The latest trade data from India and China show that gold imports slumped in December. We expect the decline in imports to continue in India, for January at least, as prices are higher in local... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices unlikely to stay elevated for long In light of a tragic accident in Brumadinho, we are revising up our iron ore price forecasts for this year and next in anticipation of weaker-than-expected Brazilian output. However, we are still of... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Outlook Industrial metals to fall further, before 2020 rebound Global demand growth is set to slow to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis, causing investor sentiment towards industrial metals to deteriorate. Both of these factors should drag... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade talks could be pivotal to investor sentiment Commodity prices largely shrugged off comments this week by the US Commerce Secretary that the US and China were “miles and miles” away from a trade deal. But the outlook for trade talks may take... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Dec.) Today’s data suggest that rapid increases in global steel output in 2018 are not set to be repeated in 2019. We think demand weakness will be a drag on prices and production this year. 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Too soon to write off Venezuela The received wisdom in the oil market is that the latest political turmoil in Venezuela is positive for oil prices as it could lead to further disruptions to the country’s oil supply. But a change of... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Turning economic cycle favours bonds over equities We think that the darkening prospects for the global economy favour high-grade bonds over equities this year. Our forecasts are for the Chinese and euro-zone economies to lose more momentum, and for a... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks jumped, after falling for the past two weeks, despite no change in production. That said, the large jump in production may not be repeated this year given low prevailing prices. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook It will get worse, before it gets better Our forecast of slower global economic growth in 2019 poses a major headwind for commodity prices this year. What’s more, we are expecting further falls in global equity prices, which suggests that... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Fresh slowdown on the cards The region’s recovery is set to falter in 2019 and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Low oil prices shouldn’t cause major balance sheet strains in the Gulf, but tighter fiscal policy and... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec.) European smelter closures and a further reduction in output at the Bécancour smelter in Canada saw global production growth plummet m/m in December. However, with cost pressures easing and smelters... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper prices to stand firm this year Subdued levels of supply growth combined with increasing global demand will ensure that copper remains in a substantial market deficit and that prices will hold up well in 2019. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
