Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium exports hit a record China’s major commodity exports rose in January, probably due to a combination of an earlier Chinese New Year holiday and sluggish domestic demand. Imports also painted a surprisingly resilient... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks recorded a hefty build, primarily reflecting a decline in refinery inputs as net imports plunged and production remained unchanged. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) January production data showed that OPEC is more than complying with the output cuts announced in late 2018, which probably explains the relative resilience of oil prices in recent weeks. However, we... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Why we are more positive on agriculturals Oversupply has been a major headwind for many agricultural commodity prices in recent years. But we think that, in many cases, stocks will start to be drawn down in 2019, which should give a lift to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Iron ore to be in the spotlight next week The return of Chinese investors could lead to a sharp rise in the price of iron ore next week, given the likelihood of significantly lower Brazilian supply. However, the prices of other industrial... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s industrial activity data suggest that metals demand held up well in the last quarter of 2018, but we don’t expect this to last in 2019 as a downturn in economic activity will weigh on demand. 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks nudged up, despite a fall in net imports and a rise in refinery activity. Although US product demand remains robust, we expect it to ease back later in 2019 as the economy starts to... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Widespread rally, but too good to last Prices of base and precious metals, along with iron ore, have risen robustly so far in 2019 but we believe that prices will diverge sooner rather than later. We expect the prices of industrial metals... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil output cuts are working, for now The price of oil rose strongly in January and is likely to remain supported in the coming months by the OPEC+ output cuts and the risk of severe disruption to Venezuela’s production. However, we think... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Recent optimism unlikely to last Commodity prices have generally had a positive week, boosted by the US-China trade talks and the dovish tone adopted by the Fed at its FOMC meeting. However, the strong US employment report on Friday... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack New year bounce to lose momentum Signs that the Fed was adopting a more dovish tone weighed on the US dollar in January, but boosted the prices of riskier assets, including commodities. However, we expect signs of slower global... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown is a headwind for prices The latest weak PMI data underpin our forecast that China’s economy will continue to slow in the coming months, which we think will weigh on the prices of most commodities, but especially the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q4 & 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends Gold demand from the official sector soared to its highest level since 1967 last year as central banks became increasingly keen to diversify from dollar assets. But, we expect the big story for 2019... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update European coal prices to remain grounded Weaker demand, the ongoing transition away from coal and rising supply from Russia will lead to lower European coal prices in 2019. We forecast that the price of Rotterdam coal will fall from $80 per... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? Slower growth in China won’t immediately restrain Australia’s exports. But by lowering commodity prices, it makes investment in new mining projects less profitable and means that the mining investment... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
