Energy Update Oil stocks are unlikely to fall sharply in 2019 The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus China’s impact on agricultural prices to wane China’s economic rise over the past 30 years involved massive increases in commodity consumption and the country now plays a significant role in determining prices. However, the impact on global... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks slumped again. The drivers were an increase in the refinery rate and a huge jump in exports. What’s more, this occurred despite production rising. We expect that as refineries come out of... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) Global aluminium production has stuttered so far in 2019, but we think that this will merely be a lull, as new capacity comes on stream and pollution controls end in China. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver prices likely to rebound Despite weaker industrial demand, we expect silver prices to rally by more than 10% this year as safe-haven demand returns and mine production falters. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak industrial production points to lower prices The recent upturn in most commodity prices appears at odds with the negative trend in global manufacturing. Of course, supply factors could explain the divergence, and probably do in the case of oil... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices can’t keep ignoring the data The prices of many commodities rose this week, despite soft economic data, in part owing to confirmation of Chinese policy stimulus at the National People’s Congress. As it happens, we think the scale... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Emissions drama returns to the PGM markets This week Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) announced a recall of almost 1 million vehicles. But even this should be insufficient to prevent palladium or rhodium prices from dropping markedly from... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel set to lose its star performer tag Nickel prices have surged since the start of this year, but we think that this leaves the metal particularly vulnerable to the global economic slowdown and higher output. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) The latest data show that OPEC has more than met its production quota, albeit mostly down to Saudi Arabia. However, with non-OPEC oil supply increasing and demand growth waning, we still think that... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell sharply and we expect them to continue to fall in the coming weeks as refineries come out of maintenance. However, higher refinery activity should also start to stabilise gasoline... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Unravelling the shifting dynamics of spreads There have been some dramatic moves in price spreads between different grades of crude oil in the last year. For the most part, spreads have reflected differences in the underlying physical demand and... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Platinum ETF holdings to increase to record high In stark contrast to recent years, investors have been drawn to platinum so far in 2019. As a result, ETF holdings have risen by more than a sixth in just two months and are rapidly approaching the... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High global stocks to weigh on wheat and corn prices Elevated levels of global end-stocks have prompted us to review our price forecasts. We have downgraded our end-2019 corn price forecast but left the price outlook for wheat and soybean unchanged for... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All the signs point to weaker demand After a relatively quiet week, the prices of most commodities took a tumble on Friday afternoon following the release of weak US February employment data. A rise of just 20,000 in non-farm payrolls... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
