Commodities Watch Revisiting commodity price correlations Back in 2014, we examined explanations for the unusually high correlation seen between commodity and equity price moves during 2009-12. We concluded that while ultra-loose policy played a role, the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Supply concerns provide price support, for now The prices of industrial metals generally held on to year-to-date gains in March, due to supply fears coupled with investor optimism around a successful resolution to US-China trade talks. Even if a... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican oil production likely to fall further The best that Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, can hope for in the coming years is a slower pace of decline in crude production. Many of its shallow oil fields are maturing and the government... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Shaky fundamentals to derail oil price rally Oil prices saw their strongest quarterly gain in almost ten years in Q1 2019. However, we expect that this recent upturn will begin to subside and that the fundamentals of elevated US supply and... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Energy price divergence to unwind The prices of most commodities struggled to find direction in March, although oil made some further gains. If a US-China trade deal is signed in April, prices may revive but we suspect that any rally... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Still grounds for caution, despite stronger China PMIs The strength of the latest China survey data may signal that growth there has passed its low-point. But we think there are still reasons to be cautious, with negative implications for most commodity... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Downhill from here … After a strong first quarter, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back over the course of 2019 on the back of subdued growth in demand. There are now broad-based signs of slower growth in... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Future SPR buying to have little impact on oil prices We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13? The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose this week as the refinery rate ticked down and net imports picked up. We don’t think that this trend will continue as we believe that OPEC exports to the US will continue to fall. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices to be blown off course While dwindling exchange stocks have helped to boost the price of zinc in recent months, we think that prices are set to drop appreciably later this year as increased mine output finally starts to... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) Today’s data show that rising Chinese output led to robust global production growth in February, but we think weak demand and high iron ore prices mean that steel mills will cut output sooner rather... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Feb.) Even looking through the Lunar New Year distortions to China’s imports, the latest trade data still point to very weak gold demand from India and China in February. While China and India’s imports are... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Price gains on borrowed time In a week when fears about global economic growth were stoked by a dovish Fed and weak euro-zone flash PMI readings for March, commodity prices actually performed rather well. However, we think that... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
