Global Markets Outlook Policymakers haven’t saved the day We think the assumption in markets that looser policy in the US and China will revive the global economy before very long is too optimistic. We are forecasting further weakness, regardless of whether... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil supply fears fading fast The price of oil rose a little last month owing in part to supply concerns regarding the US decision to end sanction waivers on Iran’s oil exports. We now expect Iran’s output to fall further and have... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack China weakness to weigh on prices regardless of trade The prices of most industrial metals fell over the past month, and were hit particularly hard in recent days by downbeat Chinese manufacturing surveys, and US-China trade talks taking a turn for the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After US crude stocks reached their highest since September 2017, the beginning of May saw a partial reversal in recent builds. The latest stock draw was fuelled by a fall in net imports and an... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports flattered by stockbuilding Aside from oil, China’s commodity imports have generally been soft since the start of this year and there are now signs that export volumes are starting to come off the boil. Imports may pick up later... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update “No trade deal” back on the cards The risk of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and China has negative implications for our already subdued outlook for the global economy and commodity prices this year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? China’s slower housing and infrastructure investment growth will weigh on demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal. Further increases in services exports are unlikely to offset that drag. The coming... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices take direction from the Fed Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing surveys and a fairly hawkish statement from the Fed sent the prices of most commodities lower again this week. Industrial commodities prices were also hit... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A US-China trade deal could lift commodity prices The prices of oil and iron ore made further gains in April owing to continued supply-side concerns, but the prices of most other commodities fell. Indeed, we also expect iron ore and oil prices to... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2019 World Gold Council Demand Trends While flattered by base effects, a surge in central bank buying and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) meant that gold demand grew by a healthy 7% y/y in Q1. While central banks should... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in refining activity and a further increase in net imports saw a third consecutive weekly build in crude stocks, which are now at the highest since September 2017. An unexpected drawdown in the... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Why lower US natural gas stocks are here to stay US natural gas stocks have remained stubbornly low in recent years. We think that this reflects a new norm in the natural gas market which is eroding the impact of stock levels on prices. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Outlook Risk appetite to be the key driver of prices Our forecast that global economic growth will stay lower for longer suggests that the recent revival in industrial metals prices will prove short-lived. However, the prices of gold and silver could... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The extent of the monsoon rains has a significant impact on the livelihoods of millions of families in India given the high level of employment in agriculture. But at the macro level, the monsoon... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
