Energy Watch Europe’s oil security problem to diminish over time The recent problem of oil contamination in Russia presents an upside risk to our oil price forecast in the short-term. If this develops into a longer-term theme, it could pose a serious risk to... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What’s behind the slump in commodity producers? The weakness in EM commodity producers at the start of the year seems to reflect a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. But the key point is that many commodity producers are yet to fully... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Extension of OPEC cuts not an open-and-shut case Market moves in the wake of this weekend’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting suggest that some investors expect OPEC to roll over output cuts when they expire in June. In contrast... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) April’s aluminium production data and the recent closure of Chinese alumina refineries suggest that the rebound in global primary supply growth that we had expected may be postponed. Despite this, we... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics will be a factor in OPEC’s output policy Softer April activity and spending data out of China and negative sentiment surrounding the impasse in US-China trade talks weighed on the prices of many metals this week. We had always suspected that... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks returned to their recent run of unseasonal builds last week. This was despite the refinery utilisation rate, net imports and production all implying a drawdown. That said, there is... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor gloom set to deepen Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) Following the recent escalation of US sanctions on Iran’s crude exports, attention has been focused on OPEC’s next move. An upward revision to global demand for OPEC crude could give some members... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trouble brewing in coffee markets Coffee prices recently reached their lowest levels in around a decade. That said, we suspect that prices are bottoming out and should pick up slightly by the end of this year. But looking beyond 2019... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oversupply plagues the wheat market Persistently high production and stocks have led us to revise down our price forecast for wheat. Indeed, in its first estimate of the 2019/20 season, the USDA expects the market to be in a large... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Tariffs are not good news for commodity prices President Trump’s decision to ratchet up the pressure on China by raising trade tariffs weighed heavily on most commodity prices this week. However, market sentiment improved a little on Friday as it... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
