Commodities Chart Pack Risk aversion looks here to stay After plunging in May, we expect the prices of most energy and industrial commodities to remain subdued in 2019 on the back of slower global growth and a rise in investor risk aversion. Grains may be... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand looks weak Subdued survey data suggest that China’s economy is likely to soften this quarter, which underpins our generally bearish view on industrial commodities prices in the coming months. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in the driving seat Trade was the big theme this week once again, with China suggesting it could restrict exports of rare earth elements to the US, as well as a rise in US-Mexico trade tensions. Consequently, the prices... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a number of surprising builds in US commercial crude stocks, last week’s small drawdown perhaps signals that a summer fall in stocks may be looming. If we are right, and stocks continue to... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farm aid could distort production The Trump administration’s latest farm aid package, announced on 23rd May, should provide some short-term relief to the ailing US farming sector. But direct payments to farmers could exacerbate the... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak demand to weigh on steel prices The recent strength in global steel production is unlikely to continue as we expect growth in global steel demand to soften and prices to fall in the months ahead. 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Apr.) Chinese and Indian gold imports rose sharply in April, in part owing to lower prices. However, our forecast of a rally in the gold price this year suggests that India’s jewellery demand, in particular... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns spreading to oil Weak flash PMIs in major advanced economies, especially in the US, have led to increased worries about the demand for industrial commodities. As a result, the recent softness in industrial metal... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Higher loadings won’t stop palladium prices falling We have revised up our estimates of palladium demand, despite weak car sales, due to higher loadings in China and Europe. We still expect the price of palladium to fall back from $1,310 per ounce... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose again this week partly due to a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which caused prices to drop sharply today. Despite this, we still think that crude... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Recent drags on car sales are set to unwind Car sales in the world’s largest markets have slumped since mid-2018. In this Metals Watch we explain our forecast for sales to begin recovering later this year. 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Europe’s oil security problem to diminish over time The recent problem of oil contamination in Russia presents an upside risk to our oil price forecast in the short-term. If this develops into a longer-term theme, it could pose a serious risk to... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
