Commodities Outlook Not out of the woods yet Subdued economic growth will weigh on the prices of most industrial and energy commodities for the remainder of 2019. What’s more, our view that there will be a further escalation in the US-China... 19th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals prices starting to look vulnerable We now expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates at the end of this month. However, we only expect a quarter-point reduction in July and only one further cut this year. While lower US interest... 19th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium’s blue sky rally to cloud over The price of palladium has surged amid higher demand for the metal from the Chinese auto sector, due to the ‘Blue Sky Protection Plan’, and investor buying. But our in-house demand proxy suggests the... 19th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s draw in commercial crude stocks can largely be put down to a drop in production in the Gulf of Mexico linked to Hurricane Barry, rather than stronger demand for crude. While the picture is... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Boost from Powell put to fade fast Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation earlier this week that an interest rate cut is likely in July gave most commodity prices a lift. And oil prices rose to their highest level since May following a... 12th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slide further China’s trade data for June painted a fairly downbeat picture of its demand for commodities. Given that we expect the Chinese economy to slow further over the coming months, a pick-up in China’s... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Little to galvanise investors to buy zinc We expect refined zinc output to grow at its fastest pace for nine years in 2019 and this, combined with ailing demand, suggests zinc prices should continue to fall to our end-2019 forecast of $2,300... 12th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch The rally in US lumber looks hollow After falling sharply over the course of 2018, US lumber prices have rallied by roughly 20% since the start of June. In this Commodities Watch, we explain why we think prices will slide again by year... 12th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ will not succeed in lowering crude stocks We think that the OPEC+ production cuts will fail to reduce global crude stocks. Instead, we expect soft demand growth and rising global supply, particularly from the US, to push stocks higher in the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Focus A US-Iran conflict would push oil prices above $150 Mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have prompted fears of a full-blown military war in the Gulf region. The most important impact would clearly be the loss of life. From the... 11th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Low exchange stocks not a problem, for now … As demand fears have taken centre stage, persistently low exchange stocks have stayed under the radar. We think this is unlikely to change this year. But in 2020, looser monetary conditions and rising... 11th July 2019 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jul.) OPEC sees demand for its oil falling in 2020 as non-OPEC producers take market share owing to its policy of output restraint. It forecasts that growth in global demand will be unchanged next year... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Although the main cause of last week’s sharp fall in commercial crude oil stocks is not clear, it does seem that the recent shutdown of the Philadelphia Energy Solution’s refinery has had little... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The ABC of aluminium restarts We believe that the restarts at Alunorte, Becancour and in China will provide additional downward pressure on the price of aluminium. This, coupled with a weak demand backdrop, means that we expect... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities down in the dumps Despite a swathe of news that should have been positive, commodity prices struggled to make gains this week as concerns about global growth continue to weigh on sentiment. Even the strong US... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
