Precious Metals Update Q2 & H1 2019 World Gold Council Demand Trends Central bank buying and ETF inflows underpinned robust demand for gold in the first half of 2019. While we think that strong official sector buying will continue, ETFs may start to see outflows as... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A flood of LNG to keep a lid on EU natural gas prices In this Update we are launching our coverage of the European TTF natural gas price. In short, we think that surging global supply of liquefied natural gas will keep EU markets amply supplied over the... 1st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Subdued demand to remain a headwind With the exception of the precious metals, most commodity prices drifted lower in July on concerns about soft demand. Given our forecast of slower global economic growth in the second half of this... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another hefty drawdown in US commercial crude stocks last week might be taken as a bullish sign by oil markets. However, taking a closer look at the latest week’s figures, the picture painted of... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Gold price rally won’t hurt external position Gold prices have hit a record high in rupee terms in recent weeks, surpassing the previous peak in 2012 when India was on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. But a drop in underlying demand for... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update What a difference two decades make … The ending of the Central Bank Gold Agreement signals that worries about central bank gold sales are firmly behind us. In fact, central bank buying is now a significant prop rather than a headwind to... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Outlook Base metals to see better days in 2020 Recent rallies in metals prices, particularly in precious metals and iron ore, are likely to falter sooner rather than later. Indeed, we expect almost all metals prices to drop in the remainder of... 29th July 2019 · 18 mins read
Commodities Weekly Next week is all talk (and maybe some price action) Commodity prices have largely been treading water, ahead of some major events next week. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. A 25 basis points rate cut is already priced... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Faltering demand from the Chinese construction sector should mean that the recent downturn in global steel output growth should gather pace in the months ahead. 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Outlook The big moves are behind us We continue to expect that sluggish growth in global oil consumption will be a factor weighing on oil prices in 2019. Nonetheless, OPEC+ output cuts and the sanctions-related drop in exports from... 26th July 2019 · 18 mins read
Oil sector to drag down third-quarter GDP The latest oil production forecasts from the National Energy Board suggest that there are downside risks to our below-consensus forecast that GDP growth declined to 1.5% annualised in the third... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Stronger biodiesel demand to bump up palm oil prices We think that the price of palm oil (PO) will rise a touch this year and pick up strongly in 2020 primarily on the back of stronger demand growth, which will shift the market into a deficit. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A fall in production in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Barry largely explains last week’s huge decline in US commercial crude stocks. However, although these output outages will only be temporary... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Surge in the Baltic Dry Index is an iron ore story The latest rally in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has more to do with developments in the iron ore market than trends in world trade. As such, we think that the index will fall back as the iron ore trade... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why the fundamentals still matter for base metals The rise of speculative investment in base metals has resulted in high levels of overall price correlation. Beyond this, copper seems to provide a fairly reliable gauge of the general direction of... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) Global aluminium output slumped in June, as a sharp fall in Chinese output outweighed increases elsewhere. But putting this month’s reading to one side, there are now clear signs that global aluminium... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
