Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand

While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint

A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and...

25th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong)

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say...

23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read

Event

Drop-in: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 – Where it’s going right (and wrong)

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Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme is passed its halfway point with clear evidence of major societal and cultural changes.

Commodities Update

Weaker demand for coal set to cool prices in 2025

The imminent closure of the UK’s last coal power plant is a further reminder that thermal coal’s days in Europe are numbered. In Asia, coal will remain a major source of power for many years to come...

23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Focus

Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition

While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from...

19th September 2024 · 10 mins read

Commodities Update

Grain prices set to fall (if La Niña doesn’t get in the way)

While media attention has been on the soaring prices of coffee and cocoa, the prices of many grains have slid lower since the start of the year. We think that prices will fall further by the end of...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Silver to stay in gold’s shadow, China trade takeaways

For all the attention on gold this year, silver has been the better performer with prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date. While silver has benefitted from the expansion in China's solar industry...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB to cut, oil prices slump

The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Courting China, commodities, consumer prices

Signs of a further thawing in relations between India and China provide more evidence of a growing theme of countries courting Chinese investment, not as a rejection of the potential benefits from US...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

Thoughts on the oil market sell-off

The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the...

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read