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Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

Commodities Weekly

Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus

Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodity markets face trifecta of risks

The next few weeks promise to be eventful ones for commodity markets. Not only will there be a new US president, but we may finally get details on the size of China’s fiscal stimulus as well as...

1st November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges

Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing

The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout

While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Risks to oil supply take centre stage

With all eyes on the extent and focus of Israel’s retaliation against Iran, the risk premium is going to dominate near-term proceedings in the oil market; depending on how things pan out, prices could...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China stimulus a silver bullet for metals? Think again

The stimulus packages announced by Chinese policymakers were the main reason behind the chunky increases in industrial metals prices this week, and explain why they performed better than most other...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The Fed cuts, commodity prices rise but it won’t last

The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 bp gave most commodity prices a boost this week. We suspect that lower interest rates won’t have a sizeable impact on US commodity demand this quarter...

20th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Silver to stay in gold’s shadow, China trade takeaways

For all the attention on gold this year, silver has been the better performer with prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date. While silver has benefitted from the expansion in China's solar industry...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ definitely maybe in charge of the oil market

The big news this week was the decision by some OPEC+ members to extend their voluntary output cuts until December. The immediate implications of the delay to unwinding voluntary output for the oil...

6th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Normal gold service resumes; OPEC+’s conundrum

While the stonking rally in gold prices earlier this year was at odds with traditional market drivers, the latest leg up in gold prices – which saw the nominal price reach yet another fresh record...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Lack of ceasefire deal poses risks; gold at record

The apparent stall in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas limited the fall in oil prices this week. While we think a deal wouldn’t be a game-changer for oil prices, a further breakdown in...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Escondida strike; China tightens grip on antimony

The strike at the world’s largest copper mine, Chinese export curbs on another critical mineral and the iron ore price tumbling to a yearly low rocked metals and minerals markets this week. While we...

16th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

EU natural gas prices chart their own course

It was no surprise to see the global commodity price index fall and rise alongside the contortions in equity markets this week. But commodity prices have not all been in the same boat; whereas some...

9th August 2024 · 4 mins read