Energy Watch How big a risk does Iran pose to oil supply? The most significant threat facing oil markets is the possibility that US sanctions will lead to a sharp drop in exports from Iran. This Energy Watch will examine how much oil could be lost and what... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC agrees to boost output We expect OPEC and Russia to increase production by about 1m barrels per day over the rest of the year, which should ensure ample supply and help to pull prices down. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch How will China’s tariffs affect commodity markets? In the last week, there has been a renewed escalation in trade tensions between the US and China. The US has announced that it is pressing ahead with tariffs and China has responded in kind. In... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Has gold lost its safe-haven status? Tensions between the US and China have escalated over the past few days, with both countries announcing hefty tariffs. Yet, the price of gold fell on the news. In this Metals Watch we first look at... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) We think that forecasts of even higher non-OPEC supply this year will push the cartel into increasing output at its meeting next week. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Rally in US steel prices to prove self-defeating President Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on US steel imports has sent the price of US hot-rolled coiled steel skyrocketing. But how sustainable is the rally in prices? In this Metals Watch we... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will OPEC raise output? The next OPEC meeting on 22nd June will probably decide the direction of oil prices over the rest of the year. This Energy Watch will examine how OPEC is progressing towards the aims it set out when... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Does the oil price determine other commodity prices? The price of oil has soared since mid-February. In this Commodities Watch, we will discuss whether the rise in oil prices has positive implications for the prices of other commodities. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) We still think that OPEC’s forecast that the market will be in a large deficit this year is too ambitious. But we do expect it to be close to balance as higher prices depress demand growth and... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will global gas prices finally converge? The surge in availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which does not need pipeline infrastructure, has raised the prospect of a more fungible natural gas market. In this Energy Watch, we look at... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Three key risks to commodity prices In this Commodities Watch, we take stock of three of the most serious geopolitical risks that have emerged over the past few months. These are the prospect of a trade war between the US and China, US... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Safe-haven demand gives a boost to gold prices Despite the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US, the price of gold has proved particularly resilient so far this year. We think that strong safe-haven demand on the back of heightened... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC revised up its forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018 again and estimated that the market was in a surplus in the first quarter. Admittedly, the cartel still expects the market to be in deficit... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch How could rising protectionism affect metals markets? Trade protectionism has escalated dramatically since the start of the year and threatens to turn into a full-blown trade war. In this Metals Watch, we look at the most recent developments on trade and... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Taking stock of the first quarter In this Commodities Watch, we review developments in the first quarter of this year and draw conclusions about what they mean for our price forecasts. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is OPEC risking its own “taper tantrum”? Oil prices have surged recently, partly due to expectations that OPEC will extend its production cuts into next year. However, some members of the group are emphasising the need for an exit strategy... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
