OPEC Watch OPEC+ to roll over output cuts There has been mounting speculation that OPEC+ is set to agree deeper cuts at its upcoming meeting. However, we still think Saudi Arabia’s concerns about its loss of market share, and little appetite... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Russia to put OPEC+ compliance at risk There is a high risk that a ramp-up in production in Russia pushes OPEC+ output above quota. While we don’t expect this to have a significant impact on prices it would be an additional reason for... 25th November 2019 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) OPEC’s November Report, and recent comments by the organisation’s secretary general, suggest OPEC is becoming more optimistic about the prospects for demand for its crude in 2020. This may be an... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.) OPEC’s September production data were distorted by the attacks on Saudi oil facilities, but overall output remained subdued. Deeper supply cuts are likely to be discussed at OPEC’s December meeting... 10th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Watch Palladium to outperform platinum if AMCU strike There is a significant risk that the ongoing wage negotiations between platinum group metals (PGM) producers in South Africa and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) will lead... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch It can only get better for natural rubber In this Commodities Watch, we are initiating coverage of natural rubber. As it stands, supply is more than ample at a time of subdued demand. The vehicle and tyre sectors, the main end-users of... 25th September 2019 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices. 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Watch Incoming US tariffs put metals in the crosshairs As it stands, the US is set to levy a 15% tariff on roughly $300bn of ‘List 4’ imports from China, of which around half will be introduced on 1st September and 15th December respectively. We had... 29th August 2019 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) While another cut in Saudi Arabian oil output pushed OPEC production further below its quota in July, we doubt that the Kingdom is on the cusp of taking larger action in order to support oil prices. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch IMO 2020 demand boost will not spark oil price rally The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set new standards for marine fuel, effective from the start of 2020. The rules have major implications for oil refineries and shipping companies, but... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch The rally in US lumber looks hollow After falling sharply over the course of 2018, US lumber prices have rallied by roughly 20% since the start of June. In this Commodities Watch, we explain why we think prices will slide again by year... 12th July 2019 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jul.) OPEC sees demand for its oil falling in 2020 as non-OPEC producers take market share owing to its policy of output restraint. It forecasts that growth in global demand will be unchanged next year... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ output restraint won’t prevent prices falling OPEC+ has agreed to rollover its current output quotas for nine months, but weak demand means that we still expect the market to move into a surplus and oil prices to fall by end-2019. 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ appears likely to extend its output cuts We expect OPEC+ to reaffirm its current output quotas for another six months when it meets next week. The group is likely to justify the move by highlighting high stocks and subdued demand prospects... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Watch Surpluses to weigh on cobalt prices in 2019 and 2020 There has been a renewed slump in the price of cobalt in recent months, owing in large part to a jump in supply. In this Metals Watch, we explore cobalt’s short-term supply and demand prospects and... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch What our new view on trade means for commodities We no longer expect the US and China to strike a deal on trade, and now forecast that the two countries’ dispute will escalate further. In this Commodities Watch, we lay out what our new view on trade... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
