Commodities Watch Chinese stimulus not enough to prompt a price rally China’s stimulus spending in 2009 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) prompted a dramatic recovery in commodity prices. In this Commodities Watch, we discuss the stimulus plans outlined... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Watch The outlook for US shale production Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, oil demand has plummeted, and prices have slumped. In this Energy Watch, we consider what this means for the US shale industry. 21st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Metals Watch Picking apart the silver price Silver is often described as having a strong price correlation with the business cycle, owing to its numerous industrial applications. Others cite its safe-haven appeal. In this Metals Watch, we... 18th May 2020 · 9 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) OPEC production jumped up in April, but this will prove a one-off given the agreed output cuts from May onwards. We expect OPEC compliance with the cuts to be fairly good in the coming months as... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Watch Are aluminium stocks set for a re-run of the GFC? In this Metals Watch, we take a closer look at whether the global aluminium market is set for a re-run of the global financial crisis (GFC), when a surge in exchange stocks depressed prices for... 6th May 2020 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC production surged in March after talks between OPEC and its allies broke down. While we expect output to remain relatively high in April, OPEC production should be much lower from May onwards... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Watch Copper’s “price premium” to grow In this Metals Watch, we introduce our measure of the “fundamental” copper price. A key takeaway is that, while we expect the traded price of copper to recover some lost ground by year-end, there is... 30th March 2020 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) OPEC production slumped in February owing to supply disruption in Libya. However, given that the current output agreement expires in March and with no replacement deal, we expect OPEC+ oil production... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch Collapse in prices to force OPEC+ to cut output We expect OPEC+ to agree to an emergency output cut of an additional 1m bpd for at least three months at its meeting later this week. This should, at a minimum, put a temporary floor under prices. 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) OPEC production fell sharply in January, but this was mainly the result of supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Otherwise, there was little indication in the latest OPEC monthly report that the group... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Middle East oil supply shocks and the risk premium In this Energy Watch, we look at how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have historically affected the risk premium in the oil price and what could happen to this premium in the future. We... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Energy Watch No respite for European coal prices European coal prices are close to historic lows. This Energy Watch explains why we think a recovery is not on the cards either in the short or the long run. 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC production fell again in December, led once more by Saudi Arabia. We continue to think that OPEC will maintain its production restraint for the remainder of 2020 to support prices. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC kept output slightly below its quota in November. We expect that OPEC will produce within its new quota until it expires in March 2020, but that Saudi Arabia will do most of the heavy lifting. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
