Energy Watch A closer look at the Indian oil sector In this Energy Watch, we examine the outlook for India’s oil sector. We begin by outlining its importance in the context of our macroeconomic research, before considering how the demand and supply... 23rd February 2021 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) The slight easing of quotas meant that OPEC oil production rose in January. However, output will fall back again this month as Saudi Arabia implements its 1m bpd of voluntary production cuts. 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch Why we are not in a new commodity supercycle The latest rally in many commodity prices has prompted some commentators to herald the arrival of a new commodity supercycle. In this Commodities Watch, we outline what is meant by a supercycle and... 8th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Watch What if travel restrictions are not eased later this year? In this Energy Watch, we discuss a key risk to our forecast of a further rise in oil prices by year-end, namely the possibility that insufficient progress on vaccine rollouts and/or concerns over new... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC’s oil production rose in December and is likely to pick up again this month in line with its higher quotas. However, the group’s total output will almost certainly fall in February and March as... 14th January 2021 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC cut its 2021 oil demand forecast in its latest report, which we suspect could delay further easing of its production cuts early next year. This should help put a floor under prices. 14th December 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch Q1 OPEC+ output to be less than headlines suggest We think that OPEC+ production will rise by less than the new agreement allows. Some countries will make compensatory cuts, while weak Q1 demand could prevent monthly rises in February and March. 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ to roll over supply cut, despite price rise We expect OPEC+ to extend its current 7.7m bpd supply cuts for at least another three months at its next meeting. Although prices have rallied in recent weeks on hopes of a faster recovery in demand... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch What can rig counts tell us about oil supply? In this Energy Watch, we argue that data on the number of rigs actively drilling for oil can offer a window into future oil production, but that the relationship is far from perfect and the time lags... 17th November 2020 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) OPEC’s oil production jumped in October as Libyan output surged. But we expect that OPEC and its allies will extend their current level of supply cuts into early 2021, which will keep ex-Libya supply... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.) OPEC’s oil production fell in September and, except for Libya, we expect output by individual member states to either stabilise or decline a touch in the coming months as prices remain weak. 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC’s oil production rose sharply in August on the back of higher output quotas. However, if concerns persist about global oil demand, which was discussed at length at yesterday’s JMMC meeting, then... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC production rose in July and the recent introduction of higher quotas means that output will almost certainly continue to increase in the coming months. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July) OPEC production continued to decline in June, largely due to a contraction in Saudi output. However, with OPEC becoming more optimistic on demand, we think that (new) higher quotas will be introduced. 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Watch Assessing the risk of a ‘second wave’ of supply loss In this Metals Watch, we examine the risks to supply posed by high rates of infection among mine workers. We start by looking at what has happened to output at mines so far this year, before assessing... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) May saw the latest OPEC production cuts come into force, with compliance among members fairly good. That said, a gradual pick-up in oil prices and demand, together with the prospect of some Libyan... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
