Energy Watch Oil prices to end the decade much lower The price of a barrel of Brent has remained well above $100 for most of the last three years, due in part to uncertainties created by the “Arab Spring”. However, over the next five to ten years, a... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Constrained supply keeping oil prices high Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and by disruption to supply in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. The return of supply, currently being... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer? The surge in US oil and gas production in recent years has fuelled expectations that the country could eventually become a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US already runs trade surpluses in coal... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What could be the long term impacts of the shale boom? Shale oil and gas has transformed the energy outlook in the US. However, the impact on the rest of the world has been negligible so far. Other countries are finding it difficult to replicate the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Ample supply to weigh again on oil prices Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and fears of disruption in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. Ample supply against a backdrop of still... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil prices to resume declines despite policy "stimulus" The price of crude has recovered a little in the last few days, but hopes of a significant boost from a further loosening in global monetary policy are overdone. We are also sceptical of assertions... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil prices still too high for comfort The past few weeks have seen the re-emergence of two key factors that we expect to undermine oil prices further over the course of the year, namely a faltering in the world economy and a renewed flare... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Risks to oil prices remain on the downside The improvements in global economic conditions indicated by the latest manufacturing surveys, as well as the positive mood in financial markets, have already prompted us to revise our near-term oil... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The outlook for 2013 This edition of our monthly Energy Watch looks at the prospects for energy prices in 2013, focusing on crude oil, coal and US natural gas. We present some central forecasts, compare them to the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How large is the Middle East risk premium? This edition of our monthly Energy Watch takes a closer look at two hot topics in the oil market. The first is the size of the Middle East risk premium in the price of crude, which we believe to be at... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Romney vs. Obama: energy policies compared The differences between the energy policies of US President Obama and his equally worthy rival Mitt Romney are largely ones of rhetoric and emphasis rather than substance. Oil prices might fall a... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch QE3 boost to be short-lived Rather than providing a further boost to oil prices, the announcement of open-ended quantitative easing (QE3) by the US Fed appears to have marked at least a temporary peak. The focus is already... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil and coal prices face multitude of downside risks Oil prices have been boosted by hopes of additional global policy stimulus and fears of a worsening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but we expect these supports to be shortlived. Possible... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Recovery in oil prices is poorly supported The partial recovery in oil prices over the last month is based on shaky ground. An immediate meltdown in the euro-zone may have been averted, but Europe is sliding into a deep recession and the risks... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Coal prices have further to fall The recent weakness of global coal prices is relatively easy to explain, as it reflects a straightforward mix of surging supply, sluggish economic activity, falling oil prices and the boom in the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch US natural gas prices to rebound despite supply boom US natural gas prices have fallen to around $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) due to soaring supply and the mild winter in North America. But they now look far too low relative to... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
