Commodities Update First global deficit in six years to lift sugar prices in 2016 After surging in early October due to a rise in Brazilian fuel prices, the world price for sugar has remained strong but volatile. Despite poor harvests in Brazil and the EU, further price rises this... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices should recover soon as market rebalances Last week’s slide in the price of crude oil has prompted us to lower our end-2015 forecasts, but we continue to expect a gradual recovery over the coming year. In particular, the latest news on global... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices likely to perk up Weak producer currencies have supported coffee exports and weighed on US dollar prices. But with depleted inventories, we think a tighter market will put upward pressure on prices next year. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Demand growth to help soak up excess oil supplies Growth in demand for oil should remain strong over the next few years, despite concerns about slower growth in emerging economies. However, in the long term demand will be constrained by improvements... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Making sense of the China data A deluge of Chinese data this week has coincided with a renewed slump in most metals prices. However, while the headlines have focused on the negatives, our interpretation of the data is that the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q3 World Gold Council Demand Trends In its latest World Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council outlined an improving picture in Q3. Demand surged by 8% y/y during the quarter, as subdued prices encouraged buying... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can protectionism save beleaguered aluminium producers? With profits under pressure, aluminium producers outside China have recently campaigned for protectionist trade measures in an attempt to defend themselves against cheap Chinese imports. However, we... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Prices fail to heed fundamentals Ongoing declines in stocks of many LME metals have failed to prevent prices from falling further over the last month. Of course, stocks can be subject to manipulation and may not be an accurate... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain & soybean mountains to depress prices further A sharp upward revision to Chinese corn stocks means that global end-year inventories are now expected to be at a record high. With a bloated global supply picture, we think further weakness in the... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Unloved copper set to rebound The price of copper is languishing below US$5,000 per tonne, undermined by negative sentiment towards commodities in general and concerns about demand from China in particular. Nonetheless, the... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Oct.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil production rose in October, helping to push inventories higher. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Oct. – 1st Nov.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 38.4 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the second half of October in the main South-Central cane-growing... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt supply unlikely to keep pace with demand Demand for cobalt looks set to grow rapidly for the foreseeable future given its use in rechargeable batteries. But the supply outlook is deteriorating, suggesting scope for prices to rally strongly. 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do China’s statistical revisions mean for coal prices? Whilst the latest revisions to China’s coal demand statistics raise more questions about the reliability of official data, we don’t think they change the big picture of falling coal demand and weaker... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does the Keystone XL veto mean for oil prices? The recently-vetoed Keystone XL pipeline would have provided a relatively cheap means for Canadian producers to transport oil to refineries in the US where it could be processed for sale. As such, the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s trade data provide some grounds for optimism While the headlines have focused on the falls in export and import values, China’s trade data actually show commodity import volumes holding up well. What’s more, the record trade surplus will support... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
