Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover, but not until next year A combination of weak Chinese demand, destocking in North America and poor economic conditions in Brazil and the CIS is weighing on steel demand this year. At the same time, global output has been... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Long-term outlook for US natural gas prices still bright We remain positive on the outlook for US natural gas prices over the next few years, despite the current weakness, as the cleaner fuel should continue to take market share from coal. 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Precious metals rally as sentiment improves The prices of precious metals (PMs) have rallied since mid-September, as sentiment towards commodities in general improved. While the Fed’s dovishness has been the biggest catalyst for changes in gold... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How long can markets shrug off low stocks? For the most part, LME metal stocks have fallen since the start of September, in some cases to multi-year lows. However, concerns about demand continue to weigh on prices. We expect the low level of... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge in September While the headlines have focused on the weak value data, the pick-up in China’s industrial import volumes suggests that ongoing fiscal stimulus, notably infrastructure spending, and earlier price... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s strikes to provide further boost to gold price While the Fed has been the biggest driver of gold prices recently, labour tensions in South Africa could provide a further boost. We believe that the gold market is already quite tight after prolonged... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices lower Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What role has the Syrian crisis played in lifting oil prices? The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Sep.) September data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil stocks rose to the highest monthly level on record. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Digging deeper into China’s coal demand We think that the market is still underestimating the weakness in China’s demand for coal and expect prices to continue to fall over the next few years as this becomes more apparent. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The turn is nigh (if it hasn’t already happened) We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. We are... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors start warming towards agriculturals again Cuts to production forecasts and other supply concerns have resulted in a sharp rise in the prices of a number of agricultural commodities since the beginning of September. In tandem, futures curves... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Sep. – 1st Oct.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that sugarcane harvesting in Brazil’s main South-Central region was back on track in the second half of September after... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Consensus is moving towards a copper deficit next year Planned and unplanned cuts to copper supply now make it increasingly likely that the market will be in deficit next year (and possibly this year), even with very subdued demand projections. This... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What’s holding back gold? The price of gold has rallied, helped by the Fed’s reluctance to raise US interest rates, but still looks likely to end the year some way below January’s peak of around $1,300 per ounce. However, gold... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update TPP impact on agricultural markets likely to be limited TPP is the largest trade deal to be negotiated for more than 20 years. But given the relatively small share of world imports of key agricultural commodities by the 12 signatories and many existing... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read